Hyman R
Department of Psychology, University of Oregon, Eugene 97403.
Experientia. 1988 Apr 15;44(4):315-22. doi: 10.1007/BF01961269.
Since the founding of the Society of Psychical Research in 1982, psychical researchers have, in each generation, generated research reports which they believed justified the existence of paranormal phenomena. Throughout this period the scientific establishment has either rejected or ignored such claims. The parapsychologists, with some justification, complained that their claims were being rejected without the benefit of a fair hearing. This paper asks the question of how well the best contemporary evidence for psi--the term used to designate ESP and psychokinetic phenomena--stands up to fair and unbiased appraisal. The results of the scrutiny of the three most widely heralded programs of research--the remote viewing experiments, the psi ganzfeld research, and the work with random number generators--indicates that parapsychological research falls short of the professed standards of the field. In particular, the available reports indicate that randomization is often inadequate, multiple statistical testing without adjustment for significance levels is prevalent, possibilities for sensory leakage are not uniformly prevented, errors in use of statistical tests are much too common, and documentation is typically inadequate. Although the responsible critic cannot argue that these observed departures from optimal experimental procedures have been the sole cause of the reported findings, it is reasonable to demand that the parapsychologists produce consistently significant findings from experiments that are methodologically adequate before their claims are taken seriously.
自1982年心灵研究协会成立以来,每一代心灵研究者都撰写了研究报告,他们认为这些报告证明了超自然现象的存在。在这一时期,科学界要么拒绝要么忽视了这些说法。超心理学家有理由抱怨他们的说法在没有得到公正听证的情况下就被拒绝了。本文提出了一个问题:当代关于超感官知觉(psi,用于指代超感官知觉和心灵致动现象的术语)的最佳证据在公正和无偏见的评估下表现如何。对三个最广为宣扬的研究项目——遥视实验、超感官知觉全域研究以及随机数生成器研究——的审查结果表明,超心理学研究未能达到该领域宣称的标准。特别是,现有报告表明随机化往往不充分,普遍存在未对显著性水平进行调整的多重统计检验,感官泄漏的可能性未得到统一防范,统计检验的使用错误非常常见,而且记录通常不充分。尽管负责任的批评者不能认为这些观察到的与最佳实验程序的偏差是报告结果的唯一原因,但在认真对待超心理学家的说法之前,要求他们从方法上恰当的实验中持续得出显著结果是合理的。