Kathiresan Arumugam, Nagai Tomokazu, Haneishi Yusuke
Coalition for African Rice Development (CARD), Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa, West End Towers, 4th Floor, PO Box 66773, Westlands 00800, Nairobi, Kenya.
World Dev. 2020 Dec;136:105126. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105126. Epub 2020 Aug 3.
Demand for rice consumption in Africa has outstripped the current local production capacities. As a result, African markets have become heavily dependent on importation, especially from Asia. During the COVID-19 pandemic, rice production in both Asia and Africa is likely to be reduced. It is also likely that the major Asian rice exporting countries will resort to stockpiling of their local production, and restrict volumes of (or ban) rice exportation. Such measures could affect demand-supply dynamics and trigger a price crisis in African rice markets. Based on the lessons learnt from the Ebola and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemics and the 2007-08 food price crisis, African nations need to moderate the impact of such a crisis through appropriate policy actions.
非洲大米消费需求已超过当地目前的生产能力。因此，非洲市场严重依赖进口，尤其是从亚洲进口。在新冠疫情期间，亚洲和非洲的大米产量都可能下降。主要亚洲大米出口国也可能会囤积本国生产的大米，并限制（或禁止）大米出口。这些措施可能会影响供需动态，并引发非洲大米市场的价格危机。基于从埃博拉疫情、严重急性呼吸综合征（SARS）疫情以及2007 - 2008年粮食价格危机中吸取的教训，非洲国家需要通过适当的政策行动来减轻此类危机的影响。
