Department of Sociology and Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Sep 8;117(36):21854-21856. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2014750117. Epub 2020 Aug 24.
The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a catastrophic increase in US mortality. How does the scale of this pandemic compare to another US catastrophe: racial inequality? Using demographic models, I estimate how many excess White deaths would raise US White mortality to the best-ever (lowest) US Black level under alternative, plausible assumptions about the age patterning of excess mortality in 2020. I find that 400,000 excess White deaths would be needed to equal the best mortality ever recorded among Blacks. For White mortality in 2020 to reach levels that Blacks experience outside of pandemics, current COVID-19 mortality levels would need to increase by a factor of nearly 6. Moreover, White life expectancy in 2020 will remain higher than Black life expectancy has ever been unless nearly 700,000 excess White deaths occur. Even amid COVID-19, US White mortality is likely to be less than what US Blacks have experienced every year. I argue that, if Black disadvantage operates every year on the scale of Whites' experience of COVID-19, then so too should the tools we deploy to fight it. Our imagination should not be limited by how accustomed the United States is to profound racial inequality.
新冠疫情大流行导致美国死亡率灾难性上升。这场大流行的规模与美国的另一场灾难——种族不平等——相比如何？我利用人口统计模型，根据 2020 年超额死亡率的年龄模式的替代合理假设，估计在多少超额白人死亡会使美国白人死亡率达到有史以来的最低水平（黑人的最佳水平）。我发现，需要 40 万白人超额死亡才能使黑人历史上记录的最佳死亡率持平。要使 2020 年的白人死亡率达到黑人在大流行之外经历的水平，目前的 COVID-19 死亡率需要增加近 6 倍。此外，除非有近 70 万白人超额死亡，否则 2020 年白人的预期寿命仍将高于黑人有史以来的预期寿命。即使在 COVID-19 大流行期间，美国白人的死亡率也可能低于美国黑人每年的死亡率。我认为，如果黑人的劣势每年都像白人经历 COVID-19 那样严重，那么我们用来与之抗争的工具也应该如此。我们的想象力不应该受到美国对严重种族不平等的习以为常的限制。
