Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Jan 1;750:141147. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141147. Epub 2020 Jul 24.
In recent decades, climate disasters, especially droughts and floods, have disrupted food production and caused yield losses. Crop models cannot identify quantitative changes of crop yield and production caused by climate disasters directly, and empirical approaches possibly underestimate the effects due to the use of the entire world or an individual nation as the unit of study. Here, we quantified the losses of crop yield and production resulting from droughts and floods across China during 1982-2012 using the superposed epoch analysis (SEA) method. We defined the actual-occurred and control composited series using provincial-level data in China, i.e., covered area (CA), affected area (AA), and sown area (SA) from 1982 to 2012, and crop yields and production of maize, rice, soybean, and wheat from 1979 to 2015. The results showed that maize and soybean in China suffered serious damage from droughts, with reductions in yields and production ranging from 7.8% to 11.6% between 1982 and 2012. Droughts and floods significantly decreased wheat yield by 5.8% and 6.1%, respectively. Moreover, rice yield and production were sensitive to both droughts and floods, with reductions of 4.5-6.3%. Among the MGPA, crops cultivated in NEC and the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHH) were more easily affected by droughts. Among the four main crops and the three types of rice in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR), the yield and production of only early rice were sensitive to floods. The quantitative identification of the spatial responses of crop yields and production to droughts and floods can help us better understand the impacts of climate disasters on food security in China and the whole world, which is essential for addressing potential adaptation strategies.
近几十年来，气候灾害，特别是干旱和洪涝，破坏了粮食生产并导致减产。作物模型无法直接识别气候灾害对作物产量和生产的定量变化，而经验方法由于将整个世界或单个国家作为研究单位，可能会低估这些影响。在这里，我们使用叠加期分析（SEA）方法量化了 1982-2012 年期间中国各地由干旱和洪涝造成的作物产量和生产损失。我们使用中国省级数据定义了实际发生的和对照组合序列，即 1982 年至 2012 年的覆盖面积（CA）、受灾面积（AA）和播种面积（SA），以及 1979 年至 2015 年的玉米、水稻、大豆和小麦的产量和生产。结果表明，中国的玉米和大豆受到干旱的严重影响，1982 年至 2012 年间，产量和生产分别减少了 7.8%至 11.6%。此外，干旱和洪涝分别显著降低了小麦产量 5.8%和 6.1%。而且，水稻产量和生产对干旱和洪涝都很敏感，减少了 4.5-6.3%。在 MGPA 中，东北和黄淮海平原（HHH）种植的作物更容易受到干旱的影响。在四种主要作物和长江中下游的三种水稻中，只有早稻的产量对洪水敏感。定量识别作物产量和生产对干旱和洪涝的空间响应有助于我们更好地了解气候灾害对中国乃至全球粮食安全的影响，这对于应对潜在的适应策略至关重要。
