School of International Affairs and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, United States.
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
Environ Sci Technol. 2020 Oct 6;54(19):11720-11731. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.0c01622. Epub 2020 Sep 11.
The coal-dominated electricity system poses major challenges for India to tackle air pollution and climate change. Although the government has issued a series of clean air policies and low-carbon energy targets, a key barrier remains enforcement. Here, we quantify the importance of policy implementation in India's electricity sector using an integrated assessment method based on emissions scenarios, air quality simulations, and health impact assessments. We find that limited enforcement of air pollution control policies leads to worse future air quality and health damages (e.g., 14 200 to 59 000 more PM-related deaths in 2040) than when energy policies are not fully enforced (5900 to 8700 more PM-related deaths in 2040), since coal power plants with end-of-pipe controls already emit little air pollution. However, substantially more carbon dioxide will be emitted if low-carbon and clean coal policies are not successfully implemented (e.g., 400 to 800 million tons more CO in 2040). Thus, our results underscore the important role of effectively implementing existing air pollution and energy policy to simultaneously achieve air pollution, health, and carbon mitigation goals in India.
以煤炭为主的电力系统给印度解决空气污染和气候变化问题带来了重大挑战。尽管政府已经发布了一系列清洁空气政策和低碳能源目标，但执行仍然是一个关键障碍。在这里，我们使用排放情景、空气质量模拟和健康影响评估的综合评估方法，量化了政策在印度电力部门执行的重要性。我们发现，空气污染控制政策执行不力会导致未来空气质量和健康损害更严重（例如，2040 年与 PM 相关的死亡人数将增加 14200 至 59000 人），而能源政策执行不力则会导致更严重的后果（例如，2040 年与 PM 相关的死亡人数将增加 5900 至 8700 人），因为末端治理的燃煤电厂已经排放了很少的空气污染。然而，如果低碳和清洁煤炭政策不能成功实施，将会排放更多的二氧化碳（例如，2040 年将增加 4 亿至 8 亿吨 CO）。因此，我们的结果强调了有效执行现有空气污染和能源政策以同时实现印度的空气污染、健康和碳减排目标的重要作用。
