Conesa Juan Carlos, Kehoe Timothy J, Nygaard Vegard M, Raveendranathan Gajendran
Stony Brook University.
University of Minnesota, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, and NBER.
Eur Econ Rev. 2020 Feb;122. doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.103363. Epub 2019 Dec 24.
We develop an overlapping generations general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy with heterogeneous consumers who face idiosyncratic earnings and health risk to study the implications of increasing college attainment, decreasing fertility, and increasing longevity (2005-2100). While all three trends contribute to a higher old age dependency ratio, increasing college attainment has different implications because it increases labor productivity. Decreasing fertility and increasing longevity require the government to increase the average labor tax rate from 33.5 to 47.1 percent. Increasing college attainment lowers the required tax increase by 12.0 percentage points. The labor tax rate required to balance the government budget is higher under general equilibrium than in a small open economy with a constant interest rate, because the reduction in the interest rate lowers capital income tax revenues.
我们构建了一个美国经济的世代交叠一般均衡模型，模型中的消费者具有异质性，面临着个体收入和健康风险，以此来研究大学教育普及程度提高、生育率下降和预期寿命增加（2005年至2100年）所带来的影响。虽然这三个趋势都会导致老年抚养比上升，但大学教育普及程度的提高有着不同的影响，因为它提高了劳动生产率。生育率下降和预期寿命增加要求政府将平均劳动税率从33.5%提高到47.1%。大学教育普及程度的提高使所需的增税幅度降低了12.0个百分点。在一般均衡情况下，平衡政府预算所需的劳动税率高于利率恒定的小型开放经济体，因为利率下降会减少资本所得税收入。
