Bairoliya Neha, Miller Ray
Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California, 701 Exposition Blvd, Ste 231 Los Angeles, CA 90089.
Colorado State University, Clark C320, Fort Collins, CO 80523.
J Econ Dyn Control. 2021 Jun;127. doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104117. Epub 2021 Mar 29.
We assess the impact of demographic changes on human capital accumulation and aggregate output using an overlapping generations model with endogenous savings and human capital investment decisions. We focus on China as it has experienced rapid changes in demographics as well as human capital levels between 1970 and 2010. Additionally, further variations in demographics are expected due to the recently introduced two-child policy. Model simulations indicate that education shares and income per capita will be lower with a fertility rebound as compared to status quo fertility. We find education policy to be effective in mitigating these adverse outcomes associated with higher fertility. While long-run declines in output per capita can be offset by a 4.7% increase in the government education budget, it requires a 28% increase to achieve the same outcome in the short-run.
我们使用一个具有内生储蓄和人力资本投资决策的世代交叠模型，评估人口结构变化对人力资本积累和总产出的影响。我们将重点放在中国，因为在1970年至2010年期间，中国经历了人口结构以及人力资本水平的快速变化。此外，由于最近出台的二孩政策，预计人口结构还会有进一步变化。模型模拟表明，与现状生育率相比，生育率反弹会使教育份额和人均收入降低。我们发现教育政策对于缓解与较高生育率相关的这些不利结果是有效的。虽然政府教育预算增加4.7%可以抵消人均产出的长期下降，但在短期内需要增加28%才能达到相同的效果。
