Auray Stéphane, Eyquem Aurélien
CREST-Ensai and ULCO, France.
Univ Lyon, Université Lumière Lyon 2, GATE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France.
J Public Econ. 2020 Oct;190:104260. doi: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104260. Epub 2020 Aug 22.
A tractable incomplete-market model with endogenous unemployment risk, sticky prices, real wage rigidity and a fiscal side is calibrated to Euro Area countries and used to analyze the macroeconomic effects of lockdown policies. Modeling them as a shock to the extensive margin of labor adjustment - a rise in separations - produces large and persistent negative effects on output, unemployment and welfare, raises precautionary savings and lowers inflation, in line with early evidence about inflation dynamics. Modeling lockdowns as a shock to the intensive margin - a fall in labor utilization - produces small and short-lived macroeconomic and welfare effects, and implies a counterfactual rise in inflation. Conditional on a lockdown (separation) shock, raising public spending or extending UI benefits by large amounts is much more effective in stimulating the economy than during normal times. Quantitatively however, the ability of such policies to flatten the output and unemployment curves remains limited, even though these policies can alleviate a reasonable share of the aggregate welfare losses from the lockdown.
一个具有内生失业风险、粘性价格、实际工资刚性和财政方面的易于处理的不完全市场模型被校准用于欧元区国家，并用于分析封锁政策的宏观经济影响。将封锁政策建模为劳动力调整广度上的冲击——离职率上升——会对产出、失业和福利产生巨大且持久的负面影响，增加预防性储蓄并降低通货膨胀，这与关于通胀动态的早期证据一致。将封锁建模为劳动力利用强度上的冲击——劳动利用率下降——会产生微小且短暂的宏观经济和福利影响，并意味着通胀出现与事实不符的上升。在封锁（离职）冲击的条件下，大幅增加公共支出或延长失业保险福利在刺激经济方面比正常时期要有效得多。然而，从数量上看，尽管这些政策可以减轻封锁造成的总体福利损失的合理份额，但这些政策使产出和失业曲线变平缓的能力仍然有限。
