Fan Chao, Jiang Xiangqi, Lee Ronald, Mostafavi Ali
Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-3136, United States of America.
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-3112, United States of America.
Cities. 2022 Sep;128:103805. doi: 10.1016/j.cities.2022.103805. Epub 2022 Jun 8.
While several non-pharmacological measures have been implemented for a few months in an effort to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States, the disease remains a danger in a number of counties as restrictions are lifted to revive the economy. Making a trade-off between economic recovery and infection control is a major challenge confronting many hard-hit counties. Understanding the transmission process and quantifying the costs of local policies are essential to the task of tackling this challenge. Here, we investigate the dynamic contact patterns of the populations from anonymized, geo-localized mobility data and census and demographic data to create data-driven, agent-based contact networks. We then simulate the epidemic spread with a time-varying contagion model in ten large metropolitan counties in the United States and evaluate a combination of mobility reduction, mask use, and reopening policies. We find that our model captures the spatial-temporal and heterogeneous case trajectory within various counties based on dynamic population behaviors. Our results show that a decision-making tool that considers both economic cost and infection outcomes of policies can be informative in making decisions of local containment strategies for optimal balancing of economic slowdown and virus spread.
在美国，为减缓冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行，已实施了多项非药物措施数月，但随着限制措施的解除以振兴经济，在一些县该疾病仍然构成危险。在经济复苏和感染控制之间进行权衡是许多受灾严重的县面临的一项重大挑战。了解传播过程并量化地方政策的成本对于应对这一挑战至关重要。在此，我们利用匿名的、地理定位的移动性数据以及人口普查和人口统计数据，研究人群的动态接触模式，以创建数据驱动的、基于主体的接触网络。然后，我们在美国十个大型都市县，使用随时间变化的传染模型模拟疫情传播，并评估减少移动性、佩戴口罩和重新开放政策的组合。我们发现，基于动态人群行为，我们的模型能够捕捉各县内的时空和异质病例轨迹。我们的结果表明，一种同时考虑政策经济成本和感染结果的决策工具，对于做出地方遏制策略决策，以实现经济放缓和病毒传播的最佳平衡可能具有参考价值。
