Emergency department, Dalian Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Dalian City, Liaoning Province, PR China.
Soc Work Public Health. 2020 Jul 1;35(6):443-455. doi: 10.1080/19371918.2020.1805386. Epub 2020 Sep 1.
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious gastrointestinal disease in children under the age of 5. Many studies have documented that meteorological variables, especially temperature, are associated with HFMD. Since the general climate patterns occur as latitude increases, so latitude may indirectly influence the peak time of HFMD. The objective of this study was to explore the effect of latitude on the starting of an HFMD epidemic in Dalian, which can help in the development of an early warning model of HFMD in difference latitude districts. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was used to analyze the tendency of HFMD incidence rate over the year. A circular distribution method was used to calculate the gold standard of beginning of the HFMD epidemic. A negative binomial regression model was used to establish the early warning of the starting of the HFMD epidemic. The annualized crude incidence rate of HFMD disease in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China as a whole was 169.14 per 100,000 from 2009 to 2013.The incidence rate of HFMD varied considerably by district during the study period, but there was no significant declining or rising trend in disease incidence over the years by district of Dalian. The circular statistical analysis results showed that there was latitudinal gradient in the starting of the HFMD epidemic except for region B; the starting time of HFMD epidemic of Region A was earlier than other regions range 9 days to 18 days. The starting time of the HFMD epidemic differs from region to region with different latitudes in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China. This result can provide a scientific basis for early warning of HFMD.
手足口病（HFMD）是 5 岁以下儿童常见的传染性胃肠道疾病。许多研究已经证明，气象变量，尤其是温度，与手足口病有关。由于一般的气候模式随着纬度的增加而发生，因此纬度可能会间接影响手足口病的高峰期。本研究旨在探讨纬度对手足口病在大连流行的开始的影响，这有助于在不同纬度地区开发手足口病早期预警模型。使用 Spearman 秩相关系数分析了全年手足口病发病率的趋势。使用圆形分布方法计算了手足口病流行开始的黄金标准。使用负二项回归模型建立了手足口病流行开始的预警。2009 年至 2013 年，中国辽宁省大连市手足口病的年化粗发病率为每 10 万人 169.14 例。研究期间，各地区手足口病发病率差异较大，但大连市各地区手足口病发病率无明显下降或上升趋势。圆形统计分析结果表明，除 B 区外，手足口病流行的开始存在纬度梯度；A 区手足口病流行的开始时间比其他地区早 9 至 18 天。辽宁省大连市不同纬度地区手足口病流行的开始时间不同。该结果可为手足口病的早期预警提供科学依据。
