2008 - 2012年中国浙江省手足口病的流行病学特征及时空聚集性

Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatial-Temporal Clusters of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Zhejiang Province, China, 2008-2012.

作者信息

Gui Juanjuan, Liu Zhifang, Zhang Tianfang, Hua Qihang, Jiang Zhenggang, Chen Bin, Gu Hua, Lv Huakun, Dong Changzheng

机构信息

Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Pathophysiology, Department of Preventive Medicine, Ningbo University School of Medicine, Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, China.

Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Pathophysiology, Department of Preventive Medicine, Ningbo University School of Medicine, Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, China; Women and Children's Hospital of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2015 Sep 30;10(9):e0139109. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0139109. eCollection 2015.

Abstract

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the major public health concerns in China. Being the province with high incidence rates of HFMD, the epidemiological features and the spatial-temporal patterns of Zhejiang Province were still unknown. The objective of this study was to investigate the epidemiological characteristics and the high-incidence clusters, as well as explore some potential risk factors. The surveillance data of HFMD during 2008-2012 were collected from the communicable disease surveillance network system of Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The distributions of age, gender, occupation, season, region, pathogen's serotype and disease severity were analyzed to describe the epidemiological features of HFMD in Zhejiang Province. Seroprevalence survey for human enterovirus 71 (EV71) in 549 healthy children of Zhejiang Province was also performed, as well as 27 seroprevalence publications between 1997 and 2015 were summarized. The spatial-temporal methods were performed to explore the clusters at county level. Furthermore, pathogens' serotypes such as EV71 and coxsackievirus A16 (Cox A16) and meteorological factors were analyzed to explore the potential factors associated with the clusters. A total of 454,339 HFMD cases were reported in Zhejiang Province during 2008-2012, including 1688 (0.37%) severe cases. The annual average incidence rate was 172.98 per 100,000 (ranged from 72.61 to 270.04). The male-to-female ratio for mild cases was around 1.64:1, and up to 1.87:1 for severe cases. Of the total cases, children aged under three years old and under five years old accounted for almost 60% and 90%, respectively. Among all enteroviruses, the predominant serotype was EV71 (49.70%), followed by Cox A16 (26.05%) and other enteroviruses (24.24%) for mild cases. In severe cases, EV71 (82.85%) was the major causative agent. EV71 seroprevalence survey in healthy children confirmed that occult infection was common in children. Furthermore, literature summary for 26 seroprevalence studies during 1997-2015 confirmed that 0-5 years group showed lowest level of EV71 seroprevalence (29.1% on average) compared to the elder children (6-10 years group: 54.6%; 11-20 years group: 61.8%). Global positive spatial autocorrelation patterns (Moran's Is>0.25, P<0.05) were discovered not only for mild cases but also for severe cases, and local positive spatial autocorrelation patterns were revealed for counties from the eastern coastal and southern regions. The retrospective space-time cluster analysis also confirmed these patterns. Risk factors analyses implied that more EV71 and less sunshine were associated with the clusters of HFMD in Zhejiang Province. Our study confirmed that Zhejiang Province was one of the highly epidemic provinces in China and that the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD were similar to other provinces. Occult infection in elder children and adults was one of the important reasons why most HFMD cases were children aged under-five. Combining the results of spatial autocorrelation analysis and the space-time cluster analysis, the major spatial-temporal clusters were from the eastern coastal and southern regions. The distribution of pathogens' serotypes and the level of sunshine could be risk factors for, and serve as an early warning of, the outbreak of HFMD in Zhejiang Province.

摘要

手足口病(HFMD)是中国主要的公共卫生问题之一。作为手足口病高发省份,浙江省的流行病学特征及时空模式仍不清楚。本研究的目的是调查手足口病的流行病学特征和高发聚集区,并探索一些潜在危险因素。收集了浙江省疾病预防控制中心传染病监测网络系统中2008 - 2012年手足口病的监测数据。分析了年龄、性别、职业、季节、地区、病原体血清型和疾病严重程度的分布情况,以描述浙江省手足口病的流行病学特征。还对549名浙江省健康儿童进行了人肠道病毒71型(EV71)血清流行率调查,并总结了1997年至2015年间的27篇血清流行率相关文献。采用时空方法探索县级聚集区。此外,分析了EV71和柯萨奇病毒A16(Cox A16)等病原体血清型以及气象因素,以探索与聚集区相关的潜在因素。2008 - 2012年浙江省共报告手足口病病例454,339例,其中重症病例1688例(0.37%)。年平均发病率为每1万人口172.98例(范围为72.61至270.04例)。轻症病例的男女比例约为1.64:1,重症病例高达1.87:1。在所有病例中,3岁以下儿童和5岁以下儿童分别占近60%和90%。在所有肠道病毒中,轻症病例中主要血清型为EV71(49.70%),其次是Cox A16(26.05%)和其他肠道病毒(24.24%)。在重症病例中,EV71(82.85%)是主要病原体。对健康儿童的EV71血清流行率调查证实,隐性感染在儿童中很常见。此外,对1997 - 2015年间26项血清流行率研究的文献总结证实,与大龄儿童(6 - 10岁组:54.6%;11 - 20岁组:61.8%)相比,0 - 5岁组的EV71血清流行率最低(平均29.1%)。不仅轻症病例,重症病例也发现了全球正空间自相关模式(Moran's I>0.25,P<0.05),东部沿海和南部地区的县呈现局部正空间自相关模式。回顾性时空聚集分析也证实了这些模式。危险因素分析表明,更多的EV71和更少的日照与浙江省手足口病聚集区有关。我们的研究证实,浙江省是中国手足口病高流行省份之一,手足口病的流行病学特征与其他省份相似。大龄儿童和成人中的隐性感染是大多数手足口病病例为5岁以下儿童的重要原因之一。结合空间自相关分析和时空聚集分析结果,主要时空聚集区来自东部沿海和南部地区。病原体血清型分布和日照水平可能是浙江省手足口病暴发的危险因素,并可作为预警指标。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ed02/4589370/9a206f993bbc/pone.0139109.g001.jpg

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