Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning (IREUS), Pfaffenwalding 7, 70569, University of Stuttgart, Germany.
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering (SCEE), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Sector H12, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Jan 1;750:141462. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141462. Epub 2020 Aug 9.
Extreme flood events can lead to dramatic changes in societal processes, disrupt rural-urban linkages and affect rural vulnerabilities. Changes in rural-urban linkages due to extreme flooding have been theoretically discussed with limited empirical evidence. Therefore, this study investigates the impacts of a flood event on linkages between rural and urban areas of Pakistan. This study also examines socioeconomic and spatial factors that can influence changes in rural-urban linkages. Three case studies were selected from the Punjab province of Pakistan, and a total of 325 samples were collected through household surveys. Descriptive statistics, binary logistic regression and correlation analysis were conducted to analyse the data. The findings show that flooding has severely affected rural communities directly and indirectly. This paper details the many different ways in which floods can change rural linkages with cities-i.e., the flow of people, information, finance, goods and services between rural and urban areas. The results also reveal that the age of household head, education, income and farming occupation are influential factors that affect how rural-urban linkages change. Most importantly, the research highlights that extreme flooding can both increase and decrease the dependence of rural communities on cities in different ways. This indicates that linkages between rural and urban areas need to be strengthened in order to reduce flood-related vulnerabilities. This study paves the way for regional planners and disaster managers to establish synergies for developing integrated flood risk management and development strategies.
极端洪水事件可能导致社会进程发生巨大变化，扰乱城乡联系，并影响农村地区的脆弱性。由于极端洪水而导致的城乡联系变化已在理论上进行了讨论，但实证证据有限。因此，本研究调查了洪水事件对巴基斯坦城乡联系的影响。本研究还研究了可能影响城乡联系变化的社会经济和空间因素。从巴基斯坦旁遮普省选择了三个案例研究，通过家庭调查共收集了 325 个样本。进行了描述性统计、二元逻辑回归和相关分析来分析数据。研究结果表明，洪水直接和间接地严重影响了农村社区。本文详细介绍了洪水可以通过多种不同方式改变农村与城市之间的联系，即农村和城市之间的人员、信息、资金、商品和服务流动。研究结果还表明，家庭户主的年龄、教育程度、收入和农业职业是影响城乡联系变化的影响因素。最重要的是，研究表明，极端洪水可以通过不同方式增加和减少农村社区对城市的依赖程度。这表明需要加强城乡联系，以减少与洪水有关的脆弱性。本研究为区域规划者和灾害管理者提供了一个契机，以建立协同作用，制定综合洪水风险管理和发展战略。
