Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Department of Economics, Preston University, Islamabad, Karachi City, Pakistan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 May;27(13):15375-15387. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-08057-z. Epub 2020 Feb 19.
Pakistan is ranked among the most climate change adversely affected countries of the world due to facing higher frequency of extreme natural hazards events as floods, drought, and earthquakes. Inadequate mitigation measures regarding severity and consecutive events of floods have badly affected millions of households' livelihoods. Pakistan has experienced five consecutive floods in the current decade from 2010 to 2015. These floods severely affected the mostly districts of Punjab province among these three most flood-affected districts Rahim Yar Khan, Muzaffargarh, and Rajanpur were selected for this research work. This study used the cross-sectional data of 840 flood-affected households from these three districts. Empirical estimates indicated the study area households major adaptation measures were foundation strengthen, elevated ground floor, precautionary saving, and construction of the house with reinforced material. Probit model estimates signified age, gender, location, and family size; monthly income, physical disability, education, and house ownership were major factors influencing mitigation strategies of households' level. Limited resources, inadequate planning for land use, lack of advanced and early warning system, and inadequate sound financial status were major obstacles regarding households' level adaptation of mitigation strategies. In addressing household level obstacles regarding advanced adaptation measures, development requires for local disaster policies such as ample spatial planning, codes of house building, practices of building infrastructure, propagation and forecasting updated flood information, and advanced and updated early warning system.
由于面临更高频率的极端自然灾害事件，如洪水、干旱和地震，巴基斯坦被列为受气候变化影响最严重的国家之一。由于缺乏关于洪水严重程度和连续事件的缓解措施，数以百万计的家庭生计受到严重影响。在从 2010 年到 2015 年的当前十年中，巴基斯坦经历了五次连续的洪水。这些洪水严重影响了旁遮普省的大部分地区，在这三个受洪水影响最严重的地区中，拉希姆亚尔汗、木尔坦和拉詹普尔被选为这项研究工作的地区。本研究使用了来自这三个地区的 840 个受灾家庭的横断面数据。实证估计表明，研究区域家庭的主要适应措施是加固地基、抬高底层、预防性储蓄以及使用加固材料建造房屋。概率模型估计表明，年龄、性别、地点和家庭规模；月收入、身体残疾、教育和房屋所有权是影响家庭层面缓解策略的主要因素。关于家庭层面适应缓解策略的有限资源、土地使用规划不足、缺乏先进和预警系统以及财政状况不足是主要障碍。在解决家庭层面的先进适应措施障碍方面，发展需要地方灾害政策，如充足的空间规划、房屋建筑规范、基础设施建设实践、传播和预测更新的洪水信息以及先进和更新的预警系统。
