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撒哈拉以南非洲国家环境质量对农业生产力的影响:基于第二代面板的实证评估。

Effects of environmental quality on agricultural productivity in sub Saharan African countries: A second generation panel based empirical assessment.

机构信息

Trent University, Peterborough, Canada; University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Australia; George Brown College, Toronto, Canada.

University of Southern Queensland, West Street, Toowoomba, QLD 4350, Australia; Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2020 Nov 1;741:140520. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140520. Epub 2020 Jun 25.

DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140520
PMID:32886980
Abstract

Agriculture is the backbone of most sub-Saharan Africa economies, but environmental quality, so vital for agricultural production, is being challenged by climate change. However, most studies measure environmental quality using one variable, CO emissions. In this study, a more enhanced measure of environmental quality, which incorporates three indicators (per capita CO emissions, energy intensity and adjusted national savings), is used. A set of second-generation panel data techniques that address some potentially crucial panel data estimation issues such as cross sectional dependence and cross country heterogeneity, are employed. Data on 24 sub-Saharan Africa countries over the period 1984 to 2016 were analysed. The impact on agricultural productivity of two of the three indicators of environmental quality, namely CO emissions and adjusted national savings, has expected signs, negative and positive, respectively. Estimates using different methods suggest a detrimental effect of per capita CO emissions on agricultural productivity in sub-Saharan Africa. A 1% rise in per capita CO emissions induces a 0.04% to 0.06% decline in agricultural productivity. Deteriorating environment quality as a result of climate change is slowly but negatively impacting sub-Saharan Africa agricultural productivity.

摘要

农业是大多数撒哈拉以南非洲经济体的支柱,但对于农业生产至关重要的环境质量正受到气候变化的挑战。然而,大多数研究使用单一变量 CO 排放来衡量环境质量。在本研究中,使用了一种更增强的环境质量衡量标准,其中包含三个指标(人均 CO 排放、能源强度和调整后的国民储蓄)。采用了一套第二代面板数据技术,这些技术解决了一些潜在的关键面板数据估计问题,如横截面相关性和国家间异质性。分析了 1984 年至 2016 年期间 24 个撒哈拉以南非洲国家的数据。环境质量的两个指标(CO 排放和调整后的国民储蓄)中的两个指标对农业生产力的影响具有预期的符号,分别为负和正。使用不同方法的估计表明,人均 CO 排放对撒哈拉以南非洲的农业生产力有不利影响。人均 CO 排放增加 1%,会导致农业生产力下降 0.04%至 0.06%。由于气候变化导致的环境质量恶化,正在缓慢但负面地影响撒哈拉以南非洲的农业生产力。

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