Climate change vulnerability of confined livestock systems predicted using bioclimatic indexes in an arid region of México.

Climate change is a major world-wide challenge to livestock production because food security is likely to be compromised by increased heat stress of the animals. The objective of this study was to characterize, using bioclimatic indexes, two livestock regions located in an arid zone of México, and to use this information to predict the impact of global warming on animal production systems of these regions located in the state of Baja California (México). A 5-year database (i.e., 2011 to 2015) consisting of about one million data points from two zones (i.e., coast, valley) from four meteorological stations in the north of Baja California were used. Bioclimatic indexes were constructed for the four types of livestock production systems most common in this region, being: dairy cattle, beef cattle, sheep, pigs. The temperature-humidity index (THI) thresholds used to classify heat stress were determined and scaled for each livestock species as: THI and THI 74 units; THI 72 units; and THI 23 units. Statistical differences between indices were detected (P < 0.01) during summer for the valley and coast zones as (THI = 72.9 and 51.8; THI = 80.6 and 67.4; THI = 83.9 and 65.2; THI = 29.5 and 20.1 units). Coast zone weather did not suggest vulnerability of livestock production systems to heat stress at any time of the year, but heat stress risk during summer for valley zone dairy cattle, sheep and pigs was classified as severe, but lower for feedlot cattle. Prediction models showed significant adjustment just in the coastal zone for THImilk, THIsheep, and THIsheep, suggesting more impact of global warming during summer in the coastal zone. Use of management strategies to reduce heat load of domestic animals during summer in northern Baja California is essential to maintain their productivity, with more emphasis in the valley zone.