Tiberius Victor, Siglow Caroline, Sendra-García Javier
University of Potsdam, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Potsdam, Germany.
Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain.
J Bus Res. 2020 Dec;121:235-242. doi: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.08.037. Epub 2020 Sep 2.
The scenario technique is widely used to cope with uncertainties plan for alternate future situations. The extensive research led to a scattered literature landscape. To organize the field quantitatively, we conduct bibliometric performance analyses and a bibliographic coupling analysis. Results show an increased interest in scenario research since 2009 and clear distinctions between strategic and operational as well as methodological and applied research. Future research can be expected to further enhance the method towards robust decision making and to combine it with methods searching for most likely scenarios, such as prediction markets, crowdsourcing, and superforecasting. Additionally, cognitive and behavioral aspects of using the scenario technique might draw further attention. The scenario technique is expected to be applied across all industries and will probably play an increasing role in currently underrepresented business functions such as marketing and innovation.
情景技术被广泛用于应对不确定性，为未来的不同情况制定计划。广泛的研究导致了文献格局分散。为了对该领域进行定量梳理，我们进行了文献计量绩效分析和文献耦合分析。结果表明，自2009年以来，对情景研究的兴趣有所增加，并且在战略与运营以及方法学与应用研究之间存在明显区别。预计未来的研究将进一步改进该方法以实现稳健决策，并将其与寻找最可能情景的方法（如预测市场、众包和超级预测）相结合。此外，使用情景技术的认知和行为方面可能会受到更多关注。情景技术有望在所有行业中得到应用，并且可能会在目前代表性不足的业务职能（如营销和创新）中发挥越来越重要的作用。
