Zentner R D
Long Range Plann. 1982 Jun;15(3):12-20. doi: 10.1016/0024-6301(82)90024-3.
A key point in considering strategic planning is that it is not forecasting. The future is unpredictable and is not a product of the past. This low opinion of forecasting has gained in influence recently. But such an approach creates a dilemma for the strategic planner. He needs to take into account potential future forces--but he can only do this with inadequate means. Forecasting methods, however, can suggest trends and it is possible to reduce the number of possible futures to a manageable number. This is, in effect, creating scenarios. The concept of using alternative scenarios in planning was popularized some 20 years back. The proviso was made that they should not be interpreted as forecasts. The methods have proved highly flexible and include the consensus technique, the iteration-through-synopsis technique, and the cross-impact method. Various studies using one or more of these have been implemented, perhaps the best known being by Meadows and by Mesarovic. These have been based on the so-called 'hard' method, using computers. 'Soft' methods are based more on the mind and use psychology and sociology, the most familiar being the Delphi method. A somewhat more sophisticated version is Cross-Impact Analysis.
在考虑战略规划时，一个关键点在于它不是预测。未来是不可预测的，并非过去的产物。这种对预测的轻视观点近来影响力渐增。但这种方法给战略规划者带来了一个困境。他需要考虑潜在的未来力量——但他只能用不充分的手段来做到这一点。然而，预测方法可以揭示趋势，并且有可能将可能的未来数量减少到可管理的数量。实际上，这就是创建情景。在规划中使用替代情景的概念大约在20年前开始流行。附带条件是它们不应被解释为预测。这些方法已被证明具有高度灵活性，包括共识技术、通过概要反复迭代技术和交叉影响法。使用其中一种或多种方法的各种研究已经开展，也许最著名的是梅多斯和梅萨罗维奇所做的研究。这些研究基于所谓的“硬”方法，使用计算机。“软”方法更多地基于思维，运用心理学和社会学，最常见的是德尔菲法。一个稍微更复杂的版本是交叉影响分析。
