Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yasouj University, Yasouj, Iran.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jan;28(3):3035-3050. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-10475-y. Epub 2020 Sep 9.
This paper develops a multi-objective conflict resolution simulation-optimization model based on a leader-follower game to resolve conflicts between different water users while optimizing water quality in the river through selective depth water withdrawal from the reservoir. Iran Water Resources Management Company (IWRMC), given the nature of the power distribution in this region, is selected as leader, and agricultural, domestic, and industrial water users are selected as followers. Nash-Harsanyi bargaining theory is used as a nested model in this general framework to model competition between followers. The proposed selective withdrawal approach considers four reservoir outlets, located at 120, 145, 163, and 181 m above sea level. Water withdrawal from multiple outlets addresses reservoir thermal stratification and water quality. Temperature and water quality are simulated based on different possible scenarios of reservoir inflow and release using a calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 model. Five artificial neural network (ANN) surrogate/meta models are then trained and validated based on CE-QUAL-W2 model results for each water quality variable. Subsequently, these validated surrogate models are coupled with the NSGA-II optimization model, which along with the utility functions of different stakeholders, constitute the building blocks of our conflict resolution multi-objective optimization model. Finally, three decision-making methods, namely AHP, PROMETHEE, and TOPSIS, are utilized to choose the superior compromise solution. Our results show that water withdrawal from multiple reservoir outlets ensures optimal water allocation to different stakeholders while satisfying the desired water quality criteria. In this study, the top outlet (181 m) has desirable quality, and the IRWQI water quality criterion at the top and deepest outlets are highest and lowest, respectively.
本文开发了一种基于领导者-跟随者博弈的多目标冲突解决仿真-优化模型，通过从水库中选择性地抽取深层水来优化河流水质，同时解决不同用水户之间的冲突。鉴于该地区权力分配的性质，伊朗水资源管理公司（IWRMC）被选为领导者，而农业、家庭和工业用水户则被选为跟随者。纳什-哈萨尼讨价还价理论被用作这个总体框架中的嵌套模型，以模拟跟随者之间的竞争。所提出的选择性抽取方法考虑了四个位于海拔 120、145、163 和 181 米的水库出水口。从多个出水口抽取水可以解决水库的热分层和水质问题。根据水库入流和释放的不同可能情景，使用经过校准的 CE-QUAL-W2 模型对温度和水质进行模拟。然后，根据 CE-QUAL-W2 模型的结果，为每个水质变量训练和验证五个人工神经网络（ANN）代理/元模型。随后，将这些经过验证的代理模型与 NSGA-II 优化模型耦合，该模型与不同利益相关者的效用函数一起构成了我们冲突解决多目标优化模型的构建块。最后，使用 AHP、PROMETHEE 和 TOPSIS 三种决策方法来选择占优的妥协解。我们的结果表明，从多个水库出水口抽取水可以确保为不同的利益相关者分配最佳的水量，同时满足所需的水质标准。在这项研究中，最高的出水口（181 米）具有理想的水质，而 IRWQI 水质标准在最高和最低的出水口处最高和最低。
