Alizadeh Farzaneh, Niksokhan Mohammad Hossein, Nikoo Mohammad Reza, Mishra Ashok, Al-Wardy Malik, Al-Rawas Ghazi
Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman.
Sci Rep. 2025 Sep 1;15(1):32214. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-18027-5.
Effective management of water quantity and quality in reservoir systems is vital for strengthening regional water security. Selective Withdrawal Systems (SWSs) contribute to this goal by allowing the precise extraction of water from specific layers in stratified reservoirs, where water quality and other properties differ across depths. Climate change and management policies further influence the hydrodynamics of SWSs, significantly impacting reservoir water quantity and quality. This study presents a multi-stage framework to identify optimal SWSs as solutions for the Wadi Dayqah reservoir in Oman, using both quantitative and qualitative approaches. The framework begins with optimizing SWS operations to ensure adequate water supply, improve the quality of released water, and enhance overall reservoir conditions. In the next phase, a robust decision-making (RDM) framework addresses uncertainties associated with climate change. This framework evaluates generated states of the world (SOWs) using sustainability indices by combining optimized responses with climate uncertainties. Additionally, a cellular automata (CA) model assesses three critical approaches in sustainable reservoir management: water deficit, undesirable water quality, and eutrophic conditions. The optimization results revealed that the proposed SWS strategies consistently outperformed the current operational state across all objectives. Notably, the lower gate (Gate 1) played a pivotal role in meeting agricultural and environmental water demands, significantly contributing to water withdrawals. Sustainability indices (SIs) for the SOWs in the RDM framework were computed based on stakeholder-defined thresholds. The SI values for the first, second, and third approaches were 0.898, 0.709, and 0.533, respectively, demonstrating the effectiveness of the optimized strategies in mitigating water deficits, improving water quality, and reducing eutrophic conditions.
水库系统中水量和水质的有效管理对于加强区域水安全至关重要。选择性取水系统（SWSs）通过允许从分层水库的特定层精确取水来实现这一目标，因为不同深度的水质和其他特性存在差异。气候变化和管理政策进一步影响了选择性取水系统的水动力，对水库的水量和水质产生了重大影响。本研究提出了一个多阶段框架，采用定量和定性方法，确定最佳的选择性取水系统，作为阿曼瓦迪代卡水库的解决方案。该框架首先优化选择性取水系统的运行，以确保充足的供水，提高放水质量，并改善水库的整体状况。在下一阶段，一个稳健决策（RDM）框架解决与气候变化相关的不确定性。该框架通过将优化响应与气候不确定性相结合，使用可持续性指数评估生成的世界状态（SOWs）。此外，一个细胞自动机（CA）模型评估了可持续水库管理中的三种关键方法：缺水、不良水质和富营养化状况。优化结果表明，所提出酌选择性取水系统策略在所有目标上始终优于当前的运行状态。值得注意的是，较低的闸门（闸门1）在满足农业和环境用水需求方面发挥了关键作用，对取水有重大贡献。稳健决策框架中世界状态的可持续性指数（SIs）是根据利益相关者定义的阈值计算得出的。第一种、第二种和第三种方法的可持续性指数值分别为0.898、0.709和0.533，表明优化策略在缓解缺水、改善水质和减少富营养化状况方面的有效性。
