Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Colima, Avenida Universidad 333, Colonia Las Viboras, Colima, Colima, Mexico 28040.
Facultad de Medicina Universidad Autonoma de Guadalajara.
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2021 Jan 7;115(1):63-73. doi: 10.1093/trstmh/traa083.
Many models for predicting dengue epidemics use incidence and short-term changes in climate variables, however, studies in real-life scenarios for correlations of seroprevalence (SP) with long-term climate variables and with integration of socio-economic factors are scarce. Our objective was to analyse the combined correlation between socio-economic and climate variables with the SP of dengue in Mexico.
We performed a seroepidemiological ecological study on the Mexican Pacific coast. Dengue SP was estimated by the presence of immunoglobulin G antibodies in 1278 inhabitants. We implemented multiple correlations with socio-economic, climatic and topographic characteristics using logistic regression, generalized linear models and non-linear regressions.
Dengue SP was 58%. The age-adjusted correlation was positive with the male sex, while a negative correlation was seen with socio-economic status (SES) and scholl level (SL). The annual temperature showed a positive correlation, while the altitude was negative. It should be noted that these correlations showed a marked 'S' shape in the non-linear model, suggesting three clearly defined scenarios for dengue risk.
Low SES and SL showed an unexpected paradoxical protective effect. Altitude above sea level and annual temperature are the main determinants for dengue in the long term. The identification of three clearly delineated scenarios for transmission could improve the accuracy of predictive models.
许多预测登革热流行的模型都使用发病率和短期气候变化变量，但关于血清阳性率（SP）与长期气候变量以及社会经济因素综合相关性的实际研究却很少。我们的目的是分析墨西哥社会经济和气候变量与登革热 SP 之间的综合相关性。
我们在墨西哥太平洋沿岸进行了血清流行病学的生态研究。通过检测 1278 名居民的 IgG 抗体，我们估算了登革热 SP。我们使用逻辑回归、广义线性模型和非线性回归，对社会经济、气候和地形特征进行了多重相关性分析。
登革热 SP 为 58%。年龄调整后的相关性与男性呈正相关，而与社会经济地位（SES）和学校水平（SL）呈负相关。年平均温度呈正相关，而海拔呈负相关。值得注意的是，这些相关性在非线性模型中呈现出明显的“S”形，表明登革热风险有三个明确界定的情况。
低 SES 和 SL 表现出出乎意料的保护作用。海拔和年平均温度是长期影响登革热的主要因素。明确确定三种传播情况可以提高预测模型的准确性。
