Carvajal Jorge G, Alaniz Alberto J, Carvajal Mario A, Acheson Emily S, Cruz Rodrigo, Vergara Pablo M, Cogliati Massimo
Facultad Tecnológica, Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Front Microbiol. 2020 Aug 28;11:2117. doi: 10.3389/fmicb.2020.02117. eCollection 2020.
In 2018 the fungal pathogen (AFLP5/VGIII) was isolated for the first time in Chile, representing the only report in a temperate region in South America. We reconstructed the colonization process of in Chile, estimating the phylogenetic origin, the potential spread zone, and the population at risk. We performed a phylogenetic analysis of the strain and modeled the environmental niche of the pathogen projecting its potential spread zone into the new colonized region. Finally, we generated risk maps and quantified the people under potential risk. Phylogenetic analysis showed high similarity between the Chilean isolate and two clonal clusters from California, United States and Colombia in South America. The pathogen can expand into all the temperate Mediterranean zone in central Chile and western Argentina, exposing more than 12 million people to this pathogen in Chile. This study has epidemiological and public health implications for the response to a potential outbreak, optimizing budgets, routing for screening diagnosis, and treatment implementation.
2018年，真菌病原体（AFLP5/VGIII）首次在智利被分离出来，这是南美洲温带地区的唯一报告。我们重建了智利的定殖过程，估计了系统发育起源、潜在传播区域和受威胁人群。我们对该菌株进行了系统发育分析，并对病原体的环境生态位进行了建模，将其潜在传播区域投射到新的定殖区域。最后，我们生成了风险地图并量化了潜在风险人群。系统发育分析表明，智利分离株与来自美国加利福尼亚州和南美洲哥伦比亚的两个克隆簇高度相似。该病原体可扩展至智利中部和阿根廷西部的所有温带地中海区域，使智利超过1200万人面临感染该病原体的风险。这项研究对于应对潜在的疫情爆发、优化预算、安排筛查诊断流程和实施治疗具有流行病学和公共卫生意义。
