Abdallah Lamiaa, El-Shennawy Tarek
Alexandria Higher Institute for Engineering and Technology (AIET), Alexandria, Egypt.
Alexandria National Refining and Petrochemicals Co. (ANRPC), Alexandria, Egypt.
EuroMediterr J Environ Integr. 2020;5(3):49. doi: 10.1007/s41207-020-00184-w. Epub 2020 Sep 21.
Energy-related CO emissions increased to a global peak of 33 Gt in 2019, resulting in an unprecedented level of "Global Warming". Egypt emitted 250 million tons of CO in 2018, thereby ranking 27th among the countries of the world in terms of energy-related CO emissions. Approximately 40% of CO emissions in Egypt orginate from the electricity generation sector, which is predominately dependent on oil and gas (90%), followed by renewables (10%; solar, wind and hydroelectric). To achieve its development goals, Egypt plans to build new power plants with a total generating capacity of 30 gigawatts (GW). Added to the current generating capacity of Egypt's power plants (60 GW), the new power plants will enable electricity generating capacities to reach approximately 90 GW by 2030. Egypt has three scenarios to achieve this goal. In the first scenario, a diversified energy mix scenario, dependence on oil and gas will be decreased in favor of a more diversified energy mix of coal, nuclear power, in addition to renewables and hydro. The second scenario, a fossil fuel-based scenario, is based on recent discoveries of proven natural gas reserves, possibly shifting Egypt's vision towards more dependence on natural gas, as well as renewables, nuclear and hydro. These two scenarios might lead to increased amounts of released CO into the atmosphere. Here we suggest a third scenario, the environmentally friendly scenario or the green scenario, in which more dependence is placed on renewables, hydro and nuclear power, in addition to natural gas, with no coal in the suggested energy mix. In this article, we analyze CO emissions derived from electricity generation under these three futuristic scenarios. The results of our comparison show that building new power plants will lead to CO emissions of 307, 330 and 128 million tons (Mt), respectively, according to the first, second and third scenario, respectively, compared to the current 100 Mt of emissions. These results clearly demonstrate that the third (green) scenario is the only scenario that allows the country to build new power plants to achieve its goals of development while only slightly increasing the amount of CO emissions. In addition, this scenario may be incorporated into the Nationally Determined Contributions ratified by Egypt in the Paris Agreement to limit global warming.
与能源相关的二氧化碳排放量在2019年增至全球峰值330亿吨，导致了前所未有的“全球变暖”程度。埃及在2018年排放了2.5亿吨二氧化碳，从而在与能源相关的二氧化碳排放方面位列世界各国第27位。埃及约40%的二氧化碳排放源自发电部门，该部门主要依赖石油和天然气（90%），其次是可再生能源（10%；太阳能、风能和水力发电）。为实现其发展目标，埃及计划建设总发电量为30吉瓦（GW）的新发电厂。加上埃及现有发电厂的发电量（60GW），到2030年新发电厂将使发电能力达到约90GW。埃及有三种实现这一目标的方案。在第一种方案，即多元化能源组合方案中，对石油和天然气的依赖将减少，转而采用更具多元化的能源组合，包括煤炭、核能，以及可再生能源和水力发电。第二种方案，即以化石燃料为基础的方案，是基于近期探明的天然气储量，这可能使埃及的愿景转向更多地依赖天然气，以及可再生能源、核能和水力发电。这两种方案可能导致大气中二氧化碳排放量增加。在此我们提出第三种方案，即环境友好方案或绿色方案，在该方案中，除天然气外，更多地依赖可再生能源、水力发电和核能，且建议的能源组合中不包括煤炭。在本文中，我们分析了这三种未来方案下源自发电的二氧化碳排放情况。我们的比较结果表明，根据第一种、第二种和第三种方案，建设新发电厂分别将导致二氧化碳排放量达到3.07亿吨、3.3亿吨和1.28亿吨，而目前的排放量为1亿吨。这些结果清楚地表明，第三种（绿色）方案是唯一能让该国建设新发电厂以实现其发展目标同时仅略微增加二氧化碳排放量的方案。此外，该方案可纳入埃及在《巴黎协定》中批准的国家自主贡献，以限制全球变暖。
