Evaluation of the value of diabetes risk scores in screening for undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes: a community-based study in southwestern China.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the performance and cost-effectiveness of existing diabetes risk scores (DRSs) to screen for undiagnosed diabetes mellitus (UDM) and prediabetes (PD) in a community-based southwestern Chinese population.

METHODS

Participants in TIDE-Chengdu survey with requisite data and without known diabetes were included. Five Chinese-derived DRSs and six non-Chinese-derived DRSs were included for evaluation. Their performance in detecting UDM and UMD or PD (UDM/PD) was assessed using the C-statistic. The cost-effectiveness of the optimal DRS was compared with that of capillary fasting blood glucose (CFBG).

RESULTS

Of the 1,692 TIDE-Chengdu survey participants included, 177 (10.5%) had UDM and 339 (20.0%) had PD. The rural participants (N = 737) were more likely to have UDM (13.4% . 8.2%) and PD (24.8% . 16.3%) than their urban counterparts (N = 955) (0.0001). In the full population, the included DRSs all showed good discrimination in detecting UDM (C-statistic: 0.699 to 0.762) and UDM/PD (C-statistic: 0.717 to 0.769), but the New Chinese DRS (NCDRS) performed best for both UDM and UDM/PD. The DRSs evaluated all showed better performance in urban participants than rural participants for both UDM (C-statistic: 0.718 to 0.795 . 0.642 to 0.720) and UDM/PD (C-statistic: 0.729 to 0.793 . 0.682 to 0.726) (all 0.05). The mean cost per UDM/PD case identified was lower with NCDRS at score 25 (¥503.3($71.9)) and 27 (¥490.5 ($70.1)) than CFBG at 5.0, 5.1, 5.2, or 5.3 mmol/L (¥631.7 ($90.2), ¥611.8 ($87.4), ¥579.2 ($82.7) and ¥551.9 ($78.8)), whereas the mean costs per UDM case identified was higher with NCDRS at score 25 (¥1379.3 ($197.0)) and 27 (¥1315.1 ($187.9)) than CFBG at 5.3, 5.4, or 5.5 mmol/L (¥1301.7 ($186.0), ¥1247.7 ($178.2) and ¥1173.3 ($167.6)).

CONCLUSION

The NCDRS represents a valid and cost-effective tool for use in southwestern China to identify high-risk patients with UDM or PD who need a diagnostic test.