Murakami Enerelt, Shimizutani Satoshi, Yamada Eiji
JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development, 10-5 Ichigaya Honmuracho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8433 Japan.
Econ Disaster Clim Chang. 2021;5(1):97-110. doi: 10.1007/s41885-020-00078-9. Epub 2020 Sep 25.
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is inevitably affecting remittance-dependent countries through economic downturns in the destination countries, and restrictions on travel and sending remittances to their home country. We explore the potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the welfare of remittance-dependent households using a dataset collected in the Philippines prior to the outbreak. First, we confirm that remittances are associated with welfare of households, particularly for those whose head is male or lower educated. Then, we use the revision of the 2020 GDP projections before and after the COVID-19 crisis to gauge potential impacts on households caused by the pandemic. We find that remittance inflow will decrease by 14-20% and household spending per capita will decline by 1-2% (food expenditure per capita by 2-3%) in one year as a result of the pandemic.
2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）不可避免地通过目的地国家的经济衰退，以及对前往其祖国旅行和汇款的限制，影响着依赖汇款的国家。我们利用疫情爆发前在菲律宾收集的数据集，探讨COVID-19大流行对依赖汇款家庭福利的潜在影响。首先，我们证实汇款与家庭福利相关，特别是对于户主为男性或受教育程度较低的家庭。然后，我们利用COVID-19危机前后2020年GDP预测的修订来衡量大流行对家庭造成的潜在影响。我们发现，由于大流行，汇款流入将在一年内减少14%-20%，人均家庭支出将下降1%-2%（人均食品支出下降2%-3%）。
