School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin, 300401, China.
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Feb;28(6):6470-6490. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-10946-2. Epub 2020 Sep 30.
Determining water ecological carrying capacity (WECC) is of great significance to ensure inter-regional green development. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation framework for WECC assessment in the Yangtze River Economic Zone (YREZ), China. Effects of water resources, socio-economic, and ecological elements on WECC can be evaluated based on multi-criteria decision analysis. Gini and unbalance coefficients are used for measuring the regional fairness between WECC and socio-economic development. Surface water production pressure (SWPP) and groundwater pollution risk (GPR) are further regarded as indicators for expressing water resources constraint on shale gas extraction in the YREZ. Results disclose that the average WECC level decreases from 0.439 in 2000 to 0.4007 in 2016, which is the opposite of the changing trend in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. A high WECC level appears in Zhejiang (0.5126) with a good state, but that of Guizhou (0.3983), Anhui (0.3968), Hunan (0.3914), and Chongqing (0.3651) are at the alert state. The obstacle factors of WECC in the eastern YREZ mostly originate from socio-economic and water resource subsystems, while that in the middle and western YREZ mainly arise from water resources and ecological subsystems. Fairness analysis shows a well-matching characteristic between the overall WECC and socio-economic performances due to a majority of their Gini coefficients lower than 0.4, while a poor matching characteristic exists in terms of provincial differences owing to their varied unbalance coefficients, especially in Guizhou, Jiangsu, and Shanghai. Moreover, Chongqing with most of shale gas reserves is characterized by slight SWPP (1.0202) and GPR (0.0188), but the prospect of shale gas development in Sichuan is not optimistic due to its high SWPP (1.0846) and GPR (0.0647). Recycling of flowback and product waters can significantly lighten regional water resources pressure. This presented framework can be applied into many other Chinese cities (e.g., Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region) with slight modifications according to their actual situations for supporting water resource managers and government with decision making.
确定水生态承载能力（WECC）对于确保区域间绿色发展具有重要意义。本研究提出了一个中国长江经济带（YREZ）水生态承载能力评估的综合评价框架。基于多准则决策分析，可以评估水资源、社会经济和生态要素对 WECC 的影响。基尼系数和不平衡系数用于衡量 WECC 与社会经济发展之间的区域公平性。地表水生产压力（SWPP）和地下水污染风险（GPR）进一步被视为表达 YREZ 页岩气开采中水资源约束的指标。结果表明，WECC 的平均水平从 2000 年的 0.439 下降到 2016 年的 0.4007，与京津冀地区的变化趋势相反。浙江（0.5126）的 WECC 水平较高，处于良好状态，而贵州（0.3983）、安徽（0.3968）、湖南（0.3914）和重庆（0.3651）则处于预警状态。东部 YREZ 的 WECC 障碍因素主要来自社会经济和水资源子系统，而中、西部 YREZ 的障碍因素主要来自水资源和生态子系统。公平性分析表明，由于其基尼系数大多低于 0.4，整体 WECC 与社会经济绩效之间存在良好的匹配特征，而由于各省之间的不平衡系数不同，存在较差的匹配特征，特别是在贵州、江苏和上海。此外，重庆拥有大部分页岩气储量，其 SWPP（1.0202）和 GPR（0.0188）较低，但由于其 SWPP（1.0846）和 GPR（0.0647）较高，四川的页岩气开发前景并不乐观。回注水和产出水的循环利用可以显著减轻区域水资源压力。根据实际情况进行适当修改后，该框架可应用于中国其他许多城市（如京津冀地区），为水资源管理者和政府提供决策支持。
