Teunissen Jan Willem Ajw, Rommers Nikki, Pion Johan, Cumming Sean P, Rössler Roland, D'Hondt Eva, Lenoir Matthieu, Savelsbergh Geert J P, Malina Robert M
Department of Sports and Exercise Studies, HAN University of Applied Sciences, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Department of Movement and Sports Sciences, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.
Ann Hum Biol. 2020 Jun;47(4):409-416. doi: 10.1080/03014460.2020.1783360.
Equations predicting age at peak height velocity (APHV) are often used to assess somatic maturity and to adjust training load accordingly. However, information on the intra-individual accuracy of APHV in youth athletes is not available.
The purpose of this study is to assess the accuracy of predication equations for the estimation of APHV in individual youth male football players.
Body dimensions were measured at least every three months in 17 elite youth male football players (11.9 ± 0.8 years at baseline) from the 2008-2009 through the 2011-2012 seasons. APHV was predicted at each observation with four suggested equations. Predicted APHV was compared to the player's observed APHV using one-sample-t-tests and equivalence-tests. Longitudinal stability was assessed by comparing the linear coefficient of the deviation to zero.
Predicted APHV was equivalent to the observed APHV in none of the players. A difference with a large effect size (Cohen's > 0.8) was noted in 87% of the predictions. Moreover, predictions were not stable over time in 71% of the cases.
None of the evaluated prediction equations is accurate for estimating APHV in individual players nor are predictions stable over time, which limits their utility for adjusting training programmes.
预测身高增长峰值年龄（APHV）的公式常被用于评估身体成熟度，并据此调整训练负荷。然而，关于青少年运动员APHV个体内准确性的信息尚不可知。
本研究旨在评估预测公式对个体青少年男性足球运动员APHV估计的准确性。
在2008 - 2009赛季至2011 - 2012赛季期间，对17名精英青少年男性足球运动员（基线年龄11.9 ± 0.8岁）至少每三个月测量一次身体尺寸。每次观察时使用四个建议公式预测APHV。使用单样本t检验和等效性检验将预测的APHV与运动员观察到的APHV进行比较。通过将偏差的线性系数与零进行比较来评估纵向稳定性。
没有一名运动员预测的APHV与观察到的APHV相等。在87%的预测中发现了具有大效应量（科恩系数>0.8）的差异。此外，在71%的情况下，预测随时间不稳定。
所评估的预测公式中没有一个对于估计个体运动员的APHV是准确的，并且预测随时间也不稳定，这限制了它们在调整训练计划中的效用。
