White Alexis, Schaefer Elsa, Thompson Chelsea Wright, Kribs Christopher M, Gaff Holly
Department of Biological Sciences, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia, USA.
Department of Mathematics, Marymount University, Arlington, Virginia, USA.
Lett Biomath. 2019;6(1):50-66. doi: 10.1080/23737867.2019.1682473.
A mathematical model for a two-pathogen, one-tick, one-host system is presented and explored. The model system is based on the dynamics of , , and . The goal of this model is to determine how long an invading pathogen, , persists within a tick population, , in which a resident pathogen, , is already established. The numerical simulations of the model demonstrate the parameter ranges that allow for coexistence of the two pathogens. Sensitivity analysis highlights the importance of vector-borne, tick-to-host, transmission rates on the invasion reproductive number and persistence of the pathogens over time. The model is then applied to a case study based on a reclaimed swampland field site in south-eastern Virginia using field and laboratory data. The results pinpoint the thresholds required for persistence of both pathogens in the local tick population. However, , is not predicted to persist beyond 3 years. Understanding the persistence and coexistence of tick-borne pathogens will allow public health officials increased insight into tick-borne disease dynamics.
本文提出并探讨了一个双病原体、单蜱、单宿主系统的数学模型。该模型系统基于[具体物质1]、[具体物质2]和[具体物质3]的动力学。此模型的目标是确定入侵病原体[病原体1]在已存在常驻病原体[病原体2]的蜱虫种群[蜱虫种群名称]中持续存在的时间。该模型的数值模拟展示了两种病原体共存所需的参数范围。敏感性分析突出了媒介传播、蜱到宿主的传播率对入侵繁殖数以及病原体随时间持续存在的重要性。然后，利用实地和实验室数据将该模型应用于弗吉尼亚州东南部一个开垦的沼泽地现场的案例研究。结果确定了两种病原体在当地蜱虫种群中持续存在所需的阈值。然而，[病原体1]预计不会持续超过3年。了解蜱传病原体的持续存在和共存情况将使公共卫生官员对蜱传疾病动态有更深入的了解。
