Proportion of Dementia Explained by Five Key Factors in Jamaica.

BACKGROUND

Dementia has no known cure and age is its strongest predictor. Given that populations in the Caribbean are aging, a focus on policies and programs that reduce the risk of dementia and its risk factors is required.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the proportion of dementia in the Jamaican setting attributable to key factors.

METHODS

We analyzed the contribution of five modifiable risk factors to dementia prevalence in Jamaica using a modified Levin's Attributable Risk formula (low educational attainment, diabetes, smoking status, depression, and physical inactivity). Four sources of data were used: risk factor prevalence was obtained from the Jamaica Health and Lifestyle Survey, 2008, relative risk data were sourced from published meta-analyses, shared variance among risk factors was determined using cross-sectional data from the Health and Social Status of Older Persons in Jamaica Study. Estimated future prevalence of dementia in Jamaica was sourced from a published ADI/BUPA report which focused on dementia in the Americas. We computed the number of dementia cases attributable to each risk factor and estimated the effect of a reduction in these risk factors on future dementia prevalence.

RESULTS

Accounting for the overlapping of risk factors, 34.46% of dementia cases in Jamaica (6548 cases) were attributable to the five risk factors under study. We determined that if each risk factor were to be reduced by 5% -10% per decade from 2010-2050, dementia prevalence could be reduced by up to 14.0%.

CONCLUSION

As the risk factors for dementia are shared with several of the main causes of death in Jamaica, a reduction in risk factors by even 5% can result in considerable public health benefit.