Research on technology prospect risk of high-tech projects based on patent analysis.

The uncertainty of high technology has determined the high-risk character of high-tech projects. Thus, it is of great importance to effectively avoid the risk of high-tech projects by thoroughly analyzing projects' methodologies and fully understanding the technology prospect risk of projects in the feasibility study phase. This study proposes a systematic research framework to identify and analyze the technology prospect risk of projects based on patent analysis. Thus, text mining technology and principal component analysis are used to improve the traditional patent map method and construct a technology prospect risk map. Moreover, patent value evaluation and correlation analysis methods are combined to identify technology potential areas and calculate the value of technology prospect risk. At the same time, an empirical study is conducted with project cases in the field of optical communications, and the technology prospect risk situations of these projects are ascertained through qualitative and quantitative methods. The study is innovative and practical and offers a better combination of analysis methods for current technology development and specific projects.