评估历史和未来土地利用及气候变化对印度南部热带山区河流流域径流量和泥沙产量的影响。

Assessing the impacts of historical and future land use and climate change on the streamflow and sediment yield of a tropical mountainous river basin in South India.

机构信息

IDP in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India.

Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India.

出版信息

Environ Monit Assess. 2020 Oct 6;192(11):679. doi: 10.1007/s10661-020-08623-5.

DOI:10.1007/s10661-020-08623-5

PMID:33025331

Abstract

In this study, the impacts of land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change on the streamflow and sediment yield were investigated for the Payaswani River Basin, Western Ghats, India. The LULC was determined using Landsat images, and climate data were procured from five general circulation models for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 (moderate emission) and 8.5 (high emission). The land change modeler was used to derive the future LULC and its changes from 1988 (historical) to 2030 (future) by using the transition matrix method. The SWAT model was used to assess the impacts of LULC and climate change for the streamflow and sediment yield. The results showed that decrease in forests and grasslands and increase in plantation, agricultural, and urban areas from 1988 to 2030 would lead to an increase in the mean streamflow (11.23%) and sediment yield (17.41%). Under RCP 4.5, climate change would decrease the streamflow by 2.38% in 2030. However, under RCP 8.5, climate change would increase the streamflow by 0.12% in 2030. The sediment yield under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 would increase by 1.23% and 3.33%, respectively. In comparison with the baseline condition, by 2030 future changes in the LULC and climate would increase the streamflow by 7.05% and 11.71% under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The sediment yield would increase by 7.92% and 27.11% under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The streamflow and sediment yield were predicted to increase in the summer and winter but decrease in the monsoon season.

摘要

本研究旨在探讨土地利用/土地覆被（LULC）变化和气候变化对印度西高止山脉帕亚斯瓦尼河流域径流量和泥沙输出的影响。LULC 通过 Landsat 图像确定，气候数据来自五个用于代表性浓度路径（RCP）4.5（中度排放）和 8.5（高排放）的通用环流模型。使用土地变化模型，通过转移矩阵法从 1988 年（历史）到 2030 年（未来）推导出未来的 LULC 及其变化。SWAT 模型用于评估 LULC 和气候变化对径流量和泥沙输出的影响。结果表明，从 1988 年到 2030 年，森林和草原减少，种植园、农业和城市面积增加，将导致平均径流量（增加 11.23%）和泥沙输出（增加 17.41%）增加。在 RCP 4.5 下，2030 年气候变化将使径流量减少 2.38%。然而，在 RCP 8.5 下，2030 年气候变化将使径流量增加 0.12%。在 RCP 4.5 和 8.5 下，泥沙输出量将分别增加 1.23%和 3.33%。与基准条件相比，到 2030 年，未来 LULC 和气候变化将使 RCP 4.5 和 8.5 下的径流量分别增加 7.05%和 11.71%，泥沙输出量分别增加 7.92%和 27.11%。径流量和泥沙输出量预计将在夏季和冬季增加，在季风季节减少。