Mouris Kilian, Schwindt Sebastian, Pesci María Herminia, Wieprecht Silke, Haun Stefan
Institute for Modelling Hydraulic and Environmental Systems, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany.
Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Leibniz University of Hannover, Hannover, Germany.
Sci Rep. 2023 Nov 17;13(1):20160. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-47501-1.
Global change alters hydro-climatic conditions, affects land use, and contributes to more frequent droughts and floods. Large artificial reservoirs may effectively alleviate hydro-climatic extremes, but their storage capacities are threatened by sedimentation processes, which in turn are exacerbated by land use change. Envisioning strategies for sustainable reservoir management requires interdisciplinary model chains to emulate key processes driving sedimentation under global change scenarios. Therefore, we introduce a model chain for the long-term prediction of complex three-dimensional (3d) reservoir sedimentation considering concurrent catchment, hydro-climatic, and land-use conditions. Applied to a mountainous Mediterranean catchment, the model chain predicts increased sediment production and decreased discharge for high and medium emission pathways. Increased winter precipitation, accompanied by a transition from snowfall to rainfall, is projected to aggravate reduced summer precipitation, emphasizing a growing need for reservoirs. Additionally, higher winter precipitation proliferates sediment production and reservoir sedimentation. Land use change can outweigh the increased reservoir sedimentation originating from hydro-climatic change, which highlights the significance of localized actions to reduce sediment production. Finally, a 3d hydro-morphodynamic model provides insights into interactions between global change and reservoir sedimentation with spatially explicit information on future sedimentation patterns facilitating the implementation of management strategies.
全球变化改变了水文气候条件，影响了土地利用，并导致干旱和洪水更加频繁。大型人工水库可以有效缓解水文气候极端事件，但它们的蓄水能力受到泥沙淤积过程的威胁，而土地利用变化又加剧了这一过程。设想可持续水库管理策略需要跨学科模型链来模拟全球变化情景下驱动泥沙淤积的关键过程。因此，我们引入了一个模型链，用于考虑流域、水文气候和土地利用同时变化的复杂三维（3D）水库泥沙淤积长期预测。应用于地中海山区流域，该模型链预测，在高排放和中等排放路径下，泥沙产量将增加，流量将减少。预计冬季降水增加，同时伴随着从降雪到降雨的转变，将加剧夏季降水减少，凸显了对水库的需求不断增加。此外，冬季降水增加会使泥沙产量和水库淤积增加。土地利用变化对水库淤积增加的影响可能超过水文气候变化的影响，这凸显了采取局部行动减少泥沙产量的重要性。最后，一个三维水动力地貌模型通过提供关于未来淤积模式的空间明确信息，深入了解全球变化与水库淤积之间的相互作用，有助于管理策略的实施。
