Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Brasil.
Universidade Federal de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brasil.
Cad Saude Publica. 2020 Oct 5;36(9):e00184820. doi: 10.1590/0102-311X00184820. eCollection 2020.
The inter-cities mobility network is of great importance in understanding outbreaks, especially in Brazil, a continental-dimension country. We adopt the data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the terrestrial flow of people between cities from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics database in two scales: cities from Brazil, without the North region, and from the São Paulo State. Grounded on the complex networks approach, and considering that the mobility network serves as a proxy for the SARS-CoV-2 spreading, the nodes and edges represent cities and flows, respectively. Network centrality measures such as strength and degree are ranked and compared to the list of cities, ordered according to the day that they confirmed the first case of COVID-19. The strength measure captures the cities with a higher vulnerability of receiving new cases. Besides, it follows the interiorization process of SARS-CoV-2 in the São Paulo State when the network flows are above specific thresholds. Some countryside cities such as Feira de Santana (Bahia State), Ribeirão Preto (São Paulo State), and Caruaru (Pernambuco State) have strength comparable to states' capitals. Our analysis offers additional tools for understanding and decision support to inter-cities mobility interventions regarding the SARS-CoV-2 and other epidemics.
城市间流动网络对于理解疫情爆发非常重要，尤其是在巴西这样一个大陆型国家。我们采用了巴西卫生部的数据和巴西地理与统计研究所数据库中城市间的地面人流数据，分为两个尺度：巴西的城市（不包括北部地区）和圣保罗州的城市。基于复杂网络方法，并且考虑到流动网络是 SARS-CoV-2 传播的替代指标，节点和边分别代表城市和流动。网络中心性度量，如强度和度数，按照城市首次确诊 COVID-19 的日期进行排名和比较。强度度量捕捉了接收新病例的高脆弱性城市。此外，当网络流量超过特定阈值时，它遵循了 SARS-CoV-2 在圣保罗州的内化过程。一些农村城市，如巴伊亚州的费拉迪圣安娜（Feira de Santana）、圣保罗州的里贝朗普雷图（Ribeirão Preto）和伯南布哥州的累西腓（Caruaru），其强度与州首府相当。我们的分析为理解和决策支持提供了额外的工具，以干预城市间的流动，应对 SARS-CoV-2 和其他传染病。
