Silva Ana T C, Dorn Rejane C, Tomás Lívia R, Santos Leonardo B L, Skalinski Lacita M, Pinho Suani T R
Departamento de Física, Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, Av. Transnordestina, s/n. Novo Horizonte, Feira de Santana, 44036-900, BA, Brazil.
Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Rua Barão de Jeremoabo s/n, Campus Universitário de Ondina, Salvador, 40170-115, BA, Brazil.
Infect Dis Model. 2023 Dec 22;9(1):142-157. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.12.004. eCollection 2024 Mar.
The study of the propagation of infectious diseases in urban centers finds a close connection with their population's social characteristics and behavior. This work performs a spatial analysis of dengue cases in urban centers based on the basic reproduction numbers, , and incidence by planning areas (PAs), as well as their correlations with the Human Development Index (HDI) and the number of trips. We analyzed dengue epidemics in 2002 at two Brazilian urban centers, Belo Horizonte (BH) and Rio de Janeiro (RJ), using PAs as spatial units. Our results reveal heterogeneous spatial scenarios for both cities, with very weak correlations between and both the number of trips and the HDI; in BH, the values of show a less spatial heterogeneous pattern than in RJ. For BH, there are moderate correlations between incidence and both the number of trips and the HDI; meanwhile, they weakly correlate for RJ. Finally, the absence of strong correlations between the considered measures indicates that the transmission process should be treated considering the city as a whole.
对城市中心传染病传播的研究发现，其与当地人口的社会特征和行为密切相关。这项工作基于基本繁殖数、发病率以及按规划区域划分的发病率，对城市中心的登革热病例进行了空间分析，并分析了它们与人类发展指数（HDI）和出行次数的相关性。我们以规划区域为空间单位，分析了2002年巴西两个城市中心贝洛奥里藏特（BH）和里约热内卢（RJ）的登革热疫情。我们的结果揭示了两个城市的空间情况各异，基本繁殖数与出行次数和人类发展指数之间的相关性都非常弱；在BH，基本繁殖数的值显示出比RJ更小的空间异质性模式。对于BH，发病率与出行次数和人类发展指数之间存在中等程度的相关性；而对于RJ，它们之间的相关性较弱。最后，所考虑的各项指标之间缺乏强相关性，这表明应将整个城市视为一个整体来考虑传播过程。
