Université de Lyon, Lyon, France; Université Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, France; Service de Biostatistique-Bioinformatique, Pôle Santé Publique, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France; Équipe Biostatistique-Santé, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, CNRS, UMR 5558, Villeurbanne, France; Epidemiology and Modelling in Infectious Diseases (EPIMOD), Dompierre-sur-Veyle, France; Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP), Lomé, Togo; Service d'Hygiène, Épidémiologie et Prévention, Hôpital Édouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France.
Université de Lyon, Lyon, France; Université Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, France; Service de Biostatistique-Bioinformatique, Pôle Santé Publique, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France; Équipe Biostatistique-Santé, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, CNRS, UMR 5558, Villeurbanne, France; Epidemiology and Modelling in Infectious Diseases (EPIMOD), Dompierre-sur-Veyle, France.
Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Dec;101:298-305. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.006. Epub 2020 Oct 8.
The WHO Malaria Report 2019 stated that "globally, the burden of malaria was lower than ten years ago, but, in the last few years, there has been an increase in the number of malaria cases around the world". This study reported changes in malaria cases and deaths at the Togo national level (2008-2017) and presented anti-malaria fight results and eradication chances by 2030 in Togo.
Cases and deaths were collected from medical records, monthly reports, and notes of 6000 health workers; then summarized by Region, District, year, and specific subpopulations. Estimates of annual trends of numbers of cases and deaths were obtained through generalized linear models.
The number of cases increased by four times, whereas the population increased by 1.3 times (2008-2017). Increases affected all regions and subpopulations; the mean annual relative increases in children <5, pregnant women, and other persons ≥5 were 13%, 10%, and 14%, respectively. Death rates decreased in all Regions; the mean annual relative decreases in the subpopulations were 7%, 16%, and 6%, respectively.
Case increases were associated with higher investments and better monitoring and death decreases to better prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. These trends should incite government and partners to maintain or intensify current efforts to meet the elimination goals by 2030.
世界卫生组织 2019 年疟疾报告指出,“全球疟疾负担比十年前有所降低,但在过去几年中,全球疟疾病例有所增加”。本研究报告了多哥国家一级(2008-2017 年)的疟疾病例和死亡人数变化,并介绍了多哥到 2030 年的抗疟斗争成果和消除疟疾的机会。
从医疗记录、每月报告和 6000 名卫生工作者的记录中收集病例和死亡人数;然后按地区、区、年和特定亚人群进行总结。通过广义线性模型获得年度病例和死亡人数趋势的估计值。
病例数增加了四倍,而人口增加了 1.3 倍(2008-2017 年)。所有地区和亚人群都受到了影响;儿童<5 岁、孕妇和其他≥5 岁人群的年平均相对增长率分别为 13%、10%和 14%。所有地区的死亡率都有所下降;各亚人群的年平均相对降幅分别为 7%、16%和 6%。
病例增加与更高的投资和更好的监测有关,而死亡率下降则与更好的预防、诊断和治疗有关。这些趋势应该促使政府和合作伙伴保持或加强当前的努力,以实现到 2030 年消除疟疾的目标。