First Light Fusion Ltd., Unit 10 Oxford Industrial Park, Mead Road, Yarnton, Oxfordshire, OX5 1QU.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2020 Nov 13;378(2184):20200053. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2020.0053. Epub 2020 Oct 12.
A simple model for the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of an inertial fusion power plant is developed. The model has 14 parameters. These have been designed to be technology agnostic, such that the model may be applied broadly to all variants of inertial fusion. It is also designed to allow easy use of proxies from existing technology. The variables related most intimately to the physics challenges of inertial fusion, such as gain and target cost, are treated as parameters such that requirements can be found without bringing complex physics into the model. A Monte Carlo approach is taken to explore the parameter space. The most important conclusion is that a combination of high gain (greater than 500) and high fusion energy yield per shot (greater than 5 GJ) together appear to unlock more cost competitive designs than those in the existing literature. Designs with LCOE as low as $25/MWh are found with optimistic but not obviously unrealistic inputs. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Prospects for high gain inertial fusion energy (part 1)'.
建立了惯性聚变能发电厂平准化度电成本（LCOE）的简单模型。该模型有 14 个参数。这些参数被设计为与技术无关，因此该模型可以广泛应用于所有惯性聚变变体。它还旨在允许轻松使用现有技术的代理。与惯性聚变的物理挑战最密切相关的变量，如增益和目标成本，被视为参数，这样就可以在不引入复杂物理的情况下找到要求。采用蒙特卡罗方法来探索参数空间。最重要的结论是，高增益（大于 500）和每发高聚变能量产量（大于 5 GJ）的组合似乎比现有文献中的设计更具成本竞争力。在乐观但并非明显不切实际的输入下，发现 LCOE 低至 25 美元/MWh 的设计。本文是讨论会议主题“高增益惯性聚变能的前景（第 1 部分）”的一部分。
