College of Economics & Management, Northwest A&F University, 3 Taicheng Road, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China.
Department of Agronomy, The University of Agriculture, Peshawar, 25130, Pakistan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Feb;28(7):7994-8011. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-11166-4. Epub 2020 Oct 12.
The concept of yield gap analysis can be used to meet the growing demands for agricultural products. Sustainable development goals (e.g. SDG1 and SDG2) to end poverty and hunger require sustainable increases in agricultural production in developing countries, particularly in South Asia and Africa. The aim of this paper is to assess the spatial heterogeneity of the potential and actual yields of major food crops and to determine the yield gaps at the provincial and national levels in Pakistan. The regional test yields of the registered cultivars were used to determine the potential grain yields and total potential grain production levels in each province of Pakistan. The yield gaps were then calculated by comparing the potential and actual yields of the selected major food crops. With a substantial exploitation rate of 0.38 in total grain production, a significant potential gap was found at the national level. The results revealed that the national potential of total grain production is 100,933 Mg, and the actual national grain production from 2015 to 2016 was 38,227 Mg, with a production gap of 62,706 Mg. The results further revealed that the maize crop had the highest potential gap on a national basis, followed by wheat and rice. Meanwhile, on provincial basis, the total production gaps of Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan are 43,776 Mg, 9649.3 Mg, 6772.1 Mg and 2510.7 Mg, respectively. Moreover, based on climate, temperature, rainfall and topography, the yield gaps varied from crop to crop and from province to province. To increase grain yields and close the yield gaps of the major crops, the farmland infrastructure should be strengthened and resource allocations should be optimized. The findings of this study can provide conclusive data for national grain production, protection and food security.
利用产量差距分析的概念可以满足对农产品日益增长的需求。可持续发展目标（如可持续发展目标 1 和 2）要求发展中国家，特别是南亚和非洲的农业生产可持续增长，以消除贫困和饥饿。本文旨在评估主要粮食作物的潜在和实际产量的空间异质性，并确定巴基斯坦省级和国家级的产量差距。利用已登记品种的区域试验产量来确定巴基斯坦每个省的潜在粮食产量和总潜在粮食产量水平。然后通过比较选定主要粮食作物的潜在和实际产量来计算产量差距。由于总粮食产量的开采率达到 0.38，因此在国家一级发现了一个显著的潜在差距。结果表明，全国粮食总产量的潜在产量为 100933 Mg，2015 年至 2016 年全国粮食实际产量为 38227 Mg，存在 62706 Mg 的产量差距。结果进一步表明，从全国范围来看，玉米作物的潜在差距最大，其次是小麦和水稻。同时，从省级范围来看，旁遮普邦、信德省、开伯尔-普赫图赫瓦省和俾路支省的总生产差距分别为 43776 Mg、9649.3 Mg、6772.1 Mg 和 2510.7 Mg。此外，根据气候、温度、降雨和地形，作物和省份之间的产量差距各不相同。为了提高粮食产量，缩小主要作物的产量差距，应加强农田基础设施建设，优化资源配置。本研究的结果可为国家粮食生产、保护和粮食安全提供确凿的数据。
