Likelihood of Proceeding to Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in the United States after Search Activation in the National Registry: Impact of Patient Age, Disease, and Search Prognosis.

The National Marrow Donor Program (NMDP) operates the Be The Match Registry to serve patients who require an allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (alloHCT). The factors that result in progression of an active donor search (ie, request for tissue typing or stem cell donation) to alloHCT are poorly understood. Some factors, such as differences in access by ethnic group, are known; however, deeper understanding of other patient and search factors is needed. Our study sought to identify the likelihood of patient progression from initiation of an active search for an unrelated adult donor/umbilical cord blood to transplant and to evaluate factors associated with proceeding to transplantation within 6 months. A retrospective cohort of US donor searches (ie, transplant center's first request of donor/cord blood unit testing; N = 8816) of the Be The Match Registry from January to December 2016 was analyzed. An adult unrelated donor search prognosis score, which categorizes the prognosis of the donor search as good, fair, or poor based on the patient HLA type and race/ethnic group, was included. At 6 months, 3744 (42%) patients had received a transplant. White patients were more likely to receive a transplant (n = 2590 of 5687, 45%) compared to black/African American patients (n = 187 of 700, 27%; P < .001). In multivariate analysis, the adult unrelated donor search prognosis score was associated with proceeding to adult donor or cord blood transplant within 6 months across all patient populations. A poor search prognosis score had an odds ratio (OR) of 0.32 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26 to 0.39, P < .001), 0.22 (95% CI, 0.09 to 0.54, P = .001), 0.39 (95% CI, 0.23 to 0.65, P < .001), and 0.26 (95% CI, 0.14 to 0.45, P < .001) for adults with malignant disease, adults with nonmalignant disease, children with malignant disease, and children with nonmalignant disease, respectively. This study identified important factors in the likelihood of a patient proceeding to HCT and suggests areas for future intervention to reduce the barriers to transplant.