Department of Economics, University of Malaga, Malaga, Spain.
PLoS One. 2020 Oct 13;15(10):e0240299. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0240299. eCollection 2020.
This study investigates the interactions between defense production and the rest of the economy. We develop a two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with military and nonmilitary production. Inputs (capital and labor) are distributed between the two sectors. Calibration of the model to key targets of the US economy results in an elasticity of substitution between consumption of goods and services and national defense services of 0.56. The estimated complementarity between consumption goods and defense services results in positive spillovers across military and final goods production sectors, even when the nonmilitary production function is not directly related to military spending. We find that military spending is procyclical and that military spending as a percentage of output is countercyclical. Finally, investment-specific technological shocks to military equipment have a positive impact on nonmilitary output, although they reduce business investment.
本研究考察了国防生产与经济其他部分之间的相互作用。我们开发了一个具有军事和非军事生产的两部门动态随机一般均衡模型。投入(资本和劳动力)在两个部门之间分配。对美国经济主要指标进行模型校准,得出商品和服务消费与国防服务之间的替代弹性为 0.56。消费商品和国防服务之间的估计互补性导致即使非军事生产函数与军事支出没有直接关系,军事和最终商品生产部门也会产生正溢出效应。我们发现,军事支出具有顺周期性,而军事支出占产出的百分比则具有逆周期性。最后,军事装备的投资特定技术冲击对非军事产出有积极影响,尽管它们减少了商业投资。