Baskett T F, Allen A C, Gray J H, Young D C, Young L M
Obstet Gynecol. 1987 Sep;70(3 Pt 1):357-60.
Antepartum assessment of 5034 high-risk pregnancies to predict perinatal death included five biophysical variables (nonstress test, fetal breathing movements, fetal movements, fetal tone, and amniotic fluid volume) which combined to form a biophysical profile score. We assessed 4148 fetuses within seven days of delivery. The ability of each variable to predict perinatal death was expressed as the likelihood ratio, which incorporates sensitivity and specificity into one number. The predictive ability was most accurate with fetal movement (likelihood ratio 48.1) and the combined biophysical profile score (likelihood ratio 51.0). The biophysical profile score was more likely to predict perinatal death due to asphyxia (seven of eight) than lethal anomaly (six of 19). The overall perinatal mortality was 7.6 per 1000 total births. The perinatal mortality rate was 1.0 for a normal biophysical profile score, 31.3 for an equivocal score, and 200.0 for an abnormal score. The false-negative rate for the biophysical profile score was 0.7 per 1000.
对5034例高危妊娠进行产前评估以预测围产期死亡，评估内容包括五个生物物理变量（无应激试验、胎儿呼吸运动、胎动、胎儿肌张力和羊水量），这些变量综合形成生物物理评分。我们在分娩前7天内对4148例胎儿进行了评估。每个变量预测围产期死亡的能力用似然比表示，似然比将敏感度和特异度合并为一个数值。胎动（似然比48.1）和综合生物物理评分（似然比51.0）预测能力最为准确。生物物理评分预测因窒息导致的围产期死亡（8例中的7例）比致命性异常（19例中的6例）更有可能。总的围产期死亡率为每1000例总出生数中有7.6例。生物物理评分正常时围产期死亡率为1.0，评分可疑时为31.3，评分异常时为200.0。生物物理评分的假阴性率为每1000例中有0.7例。
