Sun Hao, Wang Haiqing, Yang Ming, Reniers Genserik
College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, China.
Safety and Security Science Section, Department of Values, Technology, and Innovation, Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management, Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands.
J Loss Prev Process Ind. 2020 Nov;68:104322. doi: 10.1016/j.jlp.2020.104322. Epub 2020 Oct 13.
To quantify the pandemic specific impact with respect to the risk related to the chemical industry, a novel risk analysis method is proposed. The method includes three parts. Firstly, the two types of "window of opportunity" (WO) theory is proposed to divide an accident life cycle into two parts. Then, a qualitative risk analysis is conducted based on WO theory to determine possible risk factors, evolution paths and consequences. The third part is a quantitative risk analysis based on a complex network model, integrating two types of WO. The Fuzzy set theory is introduced to calculate the failure probabilities of risk factors and the concept of risk entropy is used to represent the uncertainty. Then the Dijkstra algorithm is used to calculate the shortest path and the corresponding probability of the accident. The proposed method is applied to the SCR denitrition liquid ammonia storage and transportation system. The results show that it is a comprehensive method of quantitative risk analysis and it is applicable to risk analysis during the pandemic.
为了量化与化工行业相关风险方面的疫情特定影响，提出了一种新颖的风险分析方法。该方法包括三个部分。首先，提出两种类型的“机会窗口”（WO）理论，将事故生命周期分为两部分。然后，基于WO理论进行定性风险分析，以确定可能的风险因素、演变路径和后果。第三部分是基于复杂网络模型的定量风险分析，整合了两种类型的WO。引入模糊集理论来计算风险因素的失效概率，并使用风险熵的概念来表示不确定性。然后使用迪杰斯特拉算法计算事故的最短路径及相应概率。所提出的方法应用于SCR脱硝液氨储存和运输系统。结果表明，它是一种定量风险分析的综合方法，适用于疫情期间的风险分析。
