• 文献检索
  • 文档翻译
  • 深度研究
  • 学术资讯
  • Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件
  • 邀请有礼
  • 套餐&价格
  • 历史记录
应用&插件
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件浏览器插件Mac 客户端Windows 客户端微信小程序
定价
高级版会员购买积分包购买API积分包
服务
文献检索文档翻译深度研究API 文档MCP 服务
关于我们
关于 Suppr公司介绍联系我们用户协议隐私条款
关注我们

Suppr 超能文献

核心技术专利：CN118964589B侵权必究
粤ICP备2023148730 号-1Suppr @ 2026

文献检索

告别复杂PubMed语法，用中文像聊天一样搜索，搜遍4000万医学文献。AI智能推荐，让科研检索更轻松。

立即免费搜索

文件翻译

保留排版，准确专业，支持PDF/Word/PPT等文件格式，支持 12+语言互译。

免费翻译文档

深度研究

AI帮你快速写综述，25分钟生成高质量综述，智能提取关键信息，辅助科研写作。

立即免费体验

化工储罐区池火灾多米诺事故动态概率及定量风险计算方法研究。

Study on Dynamic Probability and Quantitative Risk Calculation Method of Domino Accident in Pool Fire in Chemical Storage Tank Area.

机构信息

Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.

China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Dec 8;19(24):16483. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192416483.

DOI:10.3390/ijerph192416483
PMID:36554371
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9778777/
Abstract

The domino event caused by fire is one of the common accidents in hydrocarbon storage tank farms, which further expands the severity and scope of the accident. Due to the different failure sequence of the storage tanks in a domino accident, the radiant heat generated by the failed storage tank to the target tank is different. Based on the influence of this synergistic effect, this study combined the Monte Carlo algorithm and FSEM, and proposed a fast real-time probability calculation method for a fire domino accident in a storage tank area, for the first time. This method uses the Monte Carlo algorithm to simulate all accident scenarios, and obtains the evolution of multiple escalation fire domino accidents under the synergistic effect according to FSEM, and then calculates the real-time failure probability and risk. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the accident propagation path, this method avoids the problem of a large amount of calculation, and is conducive to the rapid and effective analysis of the fire risk in a storage tank area and the formulation of corresponding risk reduction measures. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method were proved by a case study.

摘要

火灾多米诺效应是烃类储罐区常见事故之一，会进一步扩大事故的严重程度和波及范围。由于在多米诺事故中各个储罐的失效序列不同，失效储罐向目标罐传递的热辐射也存在差异。基于这种协同作用的影响，本研究首次结合蒙特卡罗算法和 FSEM，提出了一种用于储罐区火灾多米诺事故的快速实时概率计算方法。该方法使用蒙特卡罗算法模拟所有事故场景，并根据 FSEM 得到协同作用下的多起级联火灾多米诺事故的演化，然后计算实时失效概率和风险。该方法通过综合分析事故传播路径，避免了大量计算的问题，有利于快速有效地分析储罐区的火灾风险，并制定相应的风险降低措施。通过案例研究证明了所提方法的有效性和优越性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/9935075ff90e/ijerph-19-16483-g013.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/f83a4f965dd8/ijerph-19-16483-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/4857e120d997/ijerph-19-16483-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/f6695b5a86b8/ijerph-19-16483-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/dd2587acc32b/ijerph-19-16483-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/87560acfeef6/ijerph-19-16483-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/14bbcac8dc52/ijerph-19-16483-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/7ec3f3d51cf2/ijerph-19-16483-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/8021558a4768/ijerph-19-16483-g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/a53732db8604/ijerph-19-16483-g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/ba5c20c8c4e7/ijerph-19-16483-g010.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/864711e2aba5/ijerph-19-16483-g011.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/0494591b87ca/ijerph-19-16483-g012.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/9935075ff90e/ijerph-19-16483-g013.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/f83a4f965dd8/ijerph-19-16483-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/4857e120d997/ijerph-19-16483-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/f6695b5a86b8/ijerph-19-16483-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/dd2587acc32b/ijerph-19-16483-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/87560acfeef6/ijerph-19-16483-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/14bbcac8dc52/ijerph-19-16483-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/7ec3f3d51cf2/ijerph-19-16483-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/8021558a4768/ijerph-19-16483-g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/a53732db8604/ijerph-19-16483-g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/ba5c20c8c4e7/ijerph-19-16483-g010.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/864711e2aba5/ijerph-19-16483-g011.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/0494591b87ca/ijerph-19-16483-g012.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7e75/9778777/9935075ff90e/ijerph-19-16483-g013.jpg

相似文献

1
Study on Dynamic Probability and Quantitative Risk Calculation Method of Domino Accident in Pool Fire in Chemical Storage Tank Area.化工储罐区池火灾多米诺事故动态概率及定量风险计算方法研究。
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Dec 8;19(24):16483. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192416483.
2
Probabilistic Analysis of Domino Effects by Using a Matrix-Based Simulation Approach.基于矩阵模拟方法的多米诺效应概率分析
Risk Anal. 2020 Oct;40(10):1913-1927. doi: 10.1111/risa.13544. Epub 2020 Jul 15.
3
Domino index: A rapid quantification tool for the domino effect in chemical plants.多米诺指数：一种用于量化化工厂多米诺效应的快速工具。
Heliyon. 2023 Oct 21;9(11):e21357. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e21357. eCollection 2023 Nov.
4
Risk assessment of methanol storage tank fire accident using hybrid FTA-SPA.运用混合 FTA-SPA 对甲醇储罐火灾事故进行风险评估。
PLoS One. 2023 Mar 8;18(3):e0282657. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0282657. eCollection 2023.
5
The assessment of the damage probability of storage tanks in domino events triggered by fire.火灾引发多米诺效应中储存罐破坏概率的评估。
Accid Anal Prev. 2009 Nov;41(6):1206-15. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2008.05.006. Epub 2008 Jun 12.
6
Domino effect in chemical accidents: main features and accident sequences.化学事故中的多米诺效应：主要特征和事故序列。
J Hazard Mater. 2010 Nov 15;183(1-3):565-73. doi: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2010.07.061. Epub 2010 Jul 21.
7
Simulation on Heat Transfer and Emergency Protection of Tanks in a Tank Farm under Fire Scenario.火灾场景下罐区储罐传热及应急保护模拟
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Mar 31;20(7):5348. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20075348.
8
Fuzzy Bayesian estimation and consequence modeling of the domino effects of methanol storage tanks.甲醇储罐多米诺效应的模糊贝叶斯估计与后果建模。
Int J Occup Saf Ergon. 2022 Dec;28(4):2509-2519. doi: 10.1080/10803548.2021.2011656. Epub 2021 Dec 29.
9
Analysis and Prevention and Control System of Domino Accident Risk Data in Chemical Parks Based on Topological Neural Network.基于拓扑神经网络的化工园区多米诺事故风险数据分析与防控系统。
Comput Intell Neurosci. 2022 May 26;2022:3712507. doi: 10.1155/2022/3712507. eCollection 2022.
10
DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation.DAMS：一种使用基于代理的建模和仿真来评估多米诺效应的模型。
Risk Anal. 2018 Aug;38(8):1585-1600. doi: 10.1111/risa.12955. Epub 2017 Dec 19.

引用本文的文献

1
Analysis and intelligent prediction of domino effect accidents in chemical storage tanks with a focus on accident chain length.化学储罐多米诺效应事故分析与智能预测——以事故链长度为重点
PLoS One. 2025 Sep 2;20(9):e0331180. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0331180. eCollection 2025.

本文引用的文献

1
Feasibility Evaluation of Designated Quantities for Chemicals Requiring Preparation for Accidents in the Korean Chemical Accident Prevention System.韩国化学事故预防体系中要求事故预备的化学品指定数量的可行性评估。
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Mar 16;17(6):1927. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17061927.
2
Synergic effects in the assessment of multi-hazard coupling disasters: Fires, explosions, and toxicant leaks.多灾害耦合灾害评估中的协同效应：火灾、爆炸和有毒物质泄漏。
J Hazard Mater. 2020 Apr 15;388:121813. doi: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2019.121813. Epub 2019 Dec 3.
3
Development of Accident Probability Index Using Surrogate Indicators of Chemical Accidents in Chemical Plants.
利用化工企业化学品事故替代指标开发事故概率指数。
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Sep 5;16(18):3271. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16183271.
4
Flammable Substances in Korea Considering the Domino Effect: Assessment of Safety Distance.考虑多米诺效应的韩国易燃物质：安全距离评估。
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Mar 18;16(6):969. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16060969.
5
DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation.DAMS：一种使用基于代理的建模和仿真来评估多米诺效应的模型。
Risk Anal. 2018 Aug;38(8):1585-1600. doi: 10.1111/risa.12955. Epub 2017 Dec 19.
6
Domino effect in chemical accidents: main features and accident sequences.化学事故中的多米诺效应：主要特征和事故序列。
J Hazard Mater. 2010 Nov 15;183(1-3):565-73. doi: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2010.07.061. Epub 2010 Jul 21.
7
The assessment of the damage probability of storage tanks in domino events triggered by fire.火灾引发多米诺效应中储存罐破坏概率的评估。
Accid Anal Prev. 2009 Nov;41(6):1206-15. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2008.05.006. Epub 2008 Jun 12.
8
Experimental study of thin-layer boilover in large-scale pool fires.大型油池火灾中薄液层沸溢的实验研究
J Hazard Mater. 2006 Oct 11;137(3):1293-302. doi: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2006.04.050. Epub 2006 May 4.
9
The assessment of risk caused by domino effect in quantitative area risk analysis.定量区域风险分析中多米诺效应所致风险的评估
J Hazard Mater. 2005 Dec 9;127(1-3):14-30. doi: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2005.07.003. Epub 2005 Aug 15.