Gerell Manne, Kardell Johan, Kindgren Johanna
Department of Criminology, Malmö University, Malmö, Sweden.
Intelligence Unit, National Operations Department, National Police of Sweden, Stockholm, Sweden.
Crime Sci. 2020;9(1):19. doi: 10.1186/s40163-020-00128-3. Epub 2020 Oct 11.
The covid-19 disease has a large impact on life across the globe, and this could potentially include impacts on crime. The present study describes how crime has changed in Sweden during ten weeks after the government started to implement interventions to reduce spread of the disease. Sweden has undertaken smaller interventions than many other countries and is therefore a particularly interesting case to study. The first major interventions in Sweden were implemented in the end of week 11 (March 12th) in the year 2020, and we analyze police reported crimes through week 21 (ending May 24th). Descriptive statistics are provided relative to expected levels with 95% confidence intervals for eight crime types. We find that total crime, assaults, pickpocketing and burglary have decreased significantly, personal robberies and narcotics crime are unchanged. Vandalism possibly increased somewhat but is hard to draw any firm conclusions on. The reductions are fairly small for most crime types, in the 5-20% range, with pickpocketing being the biggest exception noting a 59% drop relative to expected levels.
新冠疫情对全球生活产生了巨大影响，这可能包括对犯罪的影响。本研究描述了在瑞典政府开始实施减少疾病传播的干预措施后的十周内犯罪情况是如何变化的。瑞典采取的干预措施比许多其他国家要少，因此是一个特别值得研究的案例。瑞典的首次重大干预措施于2020年第11周周末（3月12日）实施，我们分析了截至第21周（5月24日结束）警方报告的犯罪情况。针对八种犯罪类型，提供了相对于预期水平的描述性统计数据及95%置信区间。我们发现，犯罪总数、袭击、扒窃和入室盗窃显著下降，个人抢劫和毒品犯罪没有变化。故意破坏行为可能略有增加，但很难得出任何确凿结论。大多数犯罪类型的降幅相当小，在5%至20%之间，扒窃是最大的例外，相对于预期水平下降了59%。
