School for Informatics Engineering and Cyber Security, People's Public Security University of China, Beijing 100038, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Jan 25;20(3):2163. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20032163.
The measures in the fight against COVID-19 have reshaped the functions of urban facilities, which might cause the associated crimes to vary with the occurrence of the pandemic. This paper aimed to study this phenomenon by conducting quantitative research. By treating the area under the jurisdiction of the police station (AJPS) as spatial units, the residential burglary and non-motor vehicle theft that occurred during the first-level response to the public health emergencies (pandemic) period in 2020 and the corresponding temporal window (pre-pandemic) in 2019 were collected and a practical study to Beijing was made. The impact of urban facilities on crimes during both periods was analyzed independently by using negative binomial regression (NBR) and geographical weight regression (GWR). The findings demonstrated that during the pandemic period, a reduction in the count and spatial concentration of both property crimes were observed, and the impact of facilities on crime changed. Some facilities lost their impact on crime during the pandemic period, while other facilities played a significant role in generating crime. Additionally, the variables that always kept a stable significant impact on crime during the pre- and pandemic periods demonstrated a heterogeneous impact in space and experienced some variations across the periods. The study proved that the strategies in the fight against COVID-19 changed the impact of urban facilities on crime occurrence, which deeply reshaped the crime patterns.
抗击新冠疫情的措施重塑了城市设施的功能，这可能导致相关犯罪随疫情的发生而变化。本研究旨在通过定量研究来探讨这一现象。以派出所辖区（AJPS）为空间单元，收集了 2020 年一级应对突发公共卫生事件（大流行）期间和 2019 年相应时间窗（大流行前）的入室盗窃和非机动车辆盗窃案件数据，并对北京市进行了实证研究。利用负二项回归（NBR）和地理加权回归（GWR），分别独立分析了城市设施对两个时期犯罪的影响。研究结果表明，在疫情期间，两类财产犯罪的数量和空间集中程度均有所下降，设施对犯罪的影响也发生了变化。一些设施在疫情期间失去了对犯罪的影响，而其他设施则在产生犯罪方面发挥了重要作用。此外，在大流行前和大流行期间始终保持稳定显著影响犯罪的变量在空间上表现出异质性影响，并在两个时期发生了一些变化。本研究证明，抗击新冠疫情的策略改变了城市设施对犯罪发生的影响，深刻重塑了犯罪模式。
