Mellander M, Larsson L E, Ekström-Jodal B, Sabel K G
Acta Paediatr Scand. 1987 Jul;76(4):553-9. doi: 10.1111/j.1651-2227.1987.tb10520.x.
To investigate whether the development of symptomatic patent ductus arteriosus could be predicted, 26 preterm infants dependent on mechanical ventilation were examined daily with Doppler and M-mode echocardiography until 3 days after birth. The presence or absence of a hemodynamically significant ductus shunt, as judged from echocardiographic criteria, was tested for predictive power in terms of sensitivity, specificity and total error rate. Out of the 26 infants 13 developed symptomatic patent ductus arteriosus at a median age of 5 days (range 2-8). These 13 infants developed echocardiographic evidence of a large shunt at a median age of 2 days (range 1-3). The sensitivity of prediction was 18, 46 and 100% at 1, 2 and 3 days after birth. The specificity was 80, 92 and 85% and the total error rate was 52, 32 and 8%. Thus, accurate prediction was possible 3 days after birth.
为了研究是否可以预测症状性动脉导管未闭的发生，对26名依赖机械通气的早产儿在出生后每天进行多普勒和M型超声心动图检查，直至出生后3天。根据超声心动图标准判断是否存在血流动力学显著的动脉导管分流，并从敏感性、特异性和总误差率方面测试其预测能力。26名婴儿中有13名在中位年龄5天（范围2 - 8天）时出现症状性动脉导管未闭。这13名婴儿在中位年龄2天（范围1 - 3天）时出现超声心动图显示大分流的证据。出生后1天、2天和3天的预测敏感性分别为18%、46%和100%。特异性分别为80%、92%和85%，总误差率分别为52%、32%和8%。因此，出生后3天可以进行准确预测。
