Department of Mathematics & Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada;
Department of Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Nov 3;117(44):27703-27711. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2004904117. Epub 2020 Oct 19.
Historical records reveal the temporal patterns of a sequence of plague epidemics in London, United Kingdom, from the 14th to 17th centuries. Analysis of these records shows that later epidemics spread significantly faster ("accelerated"). Between the Black Death of 1348 and the later epidemics that culminated with the Great Plague of 1665, we estimate that the epidemic growth rate increased fourfold. Currently available data do not provide enough information to infer the mode of plague transmission in any given epidemic; nevertheless, order-of-magnitude estimates of epidemic parameters suggest that the observed slow growth rates in the 14th century are inconsistent with direct (pneumonic) transmission. We discuss the potential roles of demographic and ecological factors, such as climate change or human or rat population density, in driving the observed acceleration.
历史记录揭示了英国伦敦从 14 世纪到 17 世纪一系列鼠疫流行的时间模式。对这些记录的分析表明，后来的鼠疫流行传播速度显著加快（“加速”）。在 1348 年的黑死病和以 1665 年大瘟疫为顶点的后来的鼠疫流行之间，我们估计传染病增长率增加了四倍。目前可用的数据没有提供足够的信息来推断任何特定鼠疫流行的鼠疫传播方式；尽管如此，对传染病参数的数量级估计表明，在 14 世纪观察到的缓慢增长率与直接（肺鼠疫）传播不一致。我们讨论了人口和生态因素（如气候变化或人类或老鼠种群密度）在推动观察到的加速方面的潜在作用。
