College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China.
College of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 102206, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Oct 17;17(20):7562. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17207562.
The optimization of ecological water supplement scheme in Momoge National Nature Reserve (MNNR), using an interval-parameter two-stage stochastic programming model (IPTSP), still experiences problems with fuzzy uncertainties and the wide scope of the obtained optimization schemes. These two limitations pose a high risk of system failure causing high decision risk for decision-makers and render it difficult to further undertake optimization schemes respectively. Therefore, an interval-parameter fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming (IPFTSP) model derived from an IPTSP model was constructed to address the random variable, the interval uncertainties and the fuzzy uncertainties in the water management system in the present study, to reduce decision risk and narrow down the scope of the optimization schemes. The constructed IPFTSP model was subsequently applied to the optimization of the ecological water supplement scheme of MNNR under different scenarios, to maximize the recovered habitat area and the carrying capacity for rare migratory water birds. As per the results of the IPFTSP model, the recovered habitat areas for rare migratory birds under low, medium and high flood flow scenarios were (14.06, 17.88) × 10, (14.92, 18.96) × 10 and (15.83, 19.43) × 10 ha, respectively, and the target value was (14.60, 18.47) × 10 ha with a fuzzy membership of (0.01, 0.83). Fuzzy membership reflects the possibility level that the model solutions satisfy the target value and the corresponding decision risk. We further observed that the habitat area recovered by the optimization schemes of the IPFTSP model was significantly increased compared to the recommended scheme, and the increases observed were (5.22%, 33.78%), (11.62%, 41.88%) and (18.44%, 45.39%). In addition, the interval widths of the recovered habitat areas in the IPFTSP model were reduced by 17.15%, 17.98% and 23.86%, in comparison to those from the IPTSP model. It was revealed that the IPFTSP model, besides generating the optimal decision schemes under different scenarios for decision-makers to select and providing decision space to adjust the decision schemes, also shortened the decision range, thereby reducing the decision risk and the difficulty of undertaking decision schemes. In addition, the fuzzy membership obtained from the IPFTSP model, reflecting the relationship among the possibility level, the target value, and the decision risk, assists the decision-makers in planning the ecological water supplement scheme with a preference for target value and decision risk.
基于区间参数两阶段随机规划模型（IPTSP），对若尔盖湿地国家级自然保护区（MNNR）的生态补水方案进行优化，但该模型仍存在模糊不确定性和优化方案范围广泛的问题。这两个局限性增加了系统失效的风险，给决策者带来了较高的决策风险，同时也使得进一步优化方案变得困难。因此，本研究构建了一个基于 IPTSP 模型的区间参数模糊两阶段随机规划（IPFTSP）模型，以降低决策风险并缩小优化方案的范围，从而解决水管理系统中的随机变量、区间不确定性和模糊不确定性问题。然后，将构建的 IPFTSP 模型应用于不同情景下的 MNNR 生态补水方案的优化中，以最大化恢复的栖息地面积和珍稀候鸟的承载能力。根据 IPFTSP 模型的结果，在低、中、高洪水情景下，珍稀候鸟恢复的栖息地面积分别为（14.06，17.88）×10、（14.92，18.96）×10 和（15.83，19.43）×10 公顷，目标值为（14.60，18.47）×10 公顷，模糊隶属度为（0.01，0.83）。模糊隶属度反映了模型解满足目标值的可能性水平和相应的决策风险。我们进一步观察到，与推荐方案相比，IPFTSP 模型优化方案恢复的栖息地面积显著增加，增幅分别为（5.22%，33.78%）、（11.62%，41.88%）和（18.44%，45.39%）。此外，与 IPTSP 模型相比，IPFTSP 模型中恢复的栖息地面积的区间宽度分别缩小了 17.15%、17.98%和 23.86%。这表明，IPFTSP 模型不仅可以在不同情景下为决策者生成最优决策方案供选择，还提供了决策空间来调整决策方案，从而缩短了决策范围，降低了决策风险和决策方案实施的难度。此外，从 IPFTSP 模型中获得的模糊隶属度反映了可能性水平、目标值和决策风险之间的关系，有助于决策者在规划生态补水方案时，根据目标值和决策风险偏好进行选择。
