MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy and Environmental Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China.
Environ Manage. 2013 Sep;52(3):621-38. doi: 10.1007/s00267-013-0122-9. Epub 2013 Jul 14.
Soil erosion is one of the most serious environmental and public health problems, and such land degradation can be effectively mitigated through performing land use transitions across a watershed. Optimal land use management can thus provide a way to reduce soil erosion while achieving the maximum net benefit. However, optimized land use allocation schemes are not always successful since uncertainties pertaining to soil erosion control are not well presented. This study applied an interval-parameter fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming approach to generate optimal land use planning strategies for soil erosion control based on an inexact optimization framework, in which various uncertainties were reflected. The modeling approach can incorporate predefined soil erosion control policies, and address inherent system uncertainties expressed as discrete intervals, fuzzy sets, and probability distributions. The developed model was demonstrated through a case study in the Xiangxi River watershed, China's Three Gorges Reservoir region. Land use transformations were employed as decision variables, and based on these, the land use change dynamics were yielded for a 15-year planning horizon. Finally, the maximum net economic benefit with an interval value of [1.197, 6.311] × 10(9) $ was obtained as well as corresponding land use allocations in the three planning periods. Also, the resulting soil erosion amount was found to be decreased and controlled at a tolerable level over the watershed. Thus, results confirm that the developed model is a useful tool for implementing land use management as not only does it allow local decision makers to optimize land use allocation, but can also help to answer how to accomplish land use changes.
土壤侵蚀是最严重的环境和公共卫生问题之一，通过在流域范围内进行土地利用转型，可以有效缓解这种土地退化。因此，优化土地利用管理可以提供一种减少土壤侵蚀同时实现最大净效益的方法。然而，优化的土地利用配置方案并不总是成功的，因为土壤侵蚀控制的不确定性没有得到很好的体现。本研究应用区间参数模糊两阶段随机规划方法，基于不精确优化框架，生成基于不精确优化框架的土壤侵蚀控制最优土地利用规划策略，其中反映了各种不确定性。该建模方法可以包含预定的土壤侵蚀控制政策，并解决表示为离散区间、模糊集和概率分布的固有系统不确定性。所开发的模型通过中国三峡库区湘西河流域的案例研究进行了演示。土地利用转型被用作决策变量，并基于这些变量，得出了 15 年规划期的土地利用变化动态。最后，还获得了区间值为[1.197,6.311]×10(9) $的最大净经济效益以及三个规划期的相应土地利用分配。此外，还发现流域内的土壤侵蚀量减少并得到了控制，处于可容忍水平。因此，结果证实，所开发的模型是实施土地利用管理的有用工具，因为它不仅允许地方决策者优化土地利用分配，还可以帮助回答如何实现土地利用变化。
