Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), Jodhpur, Rajasthan, India.
Engineering Science Laboratory - Central Scientific Instruments Organization (CSIO), Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Chandigarh, India.
Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2022 Apr;16(2):627-633. doi: 10.1017/dmp.2020.393. Epub 2020 Oct 22.
During the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, Indian nationals evacuated from Iran were quarantined at Jaisalmer, Rajasthan. We wished to study the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in this closed population.
A basic susceptible, exposed, infected, and removed (SEIR) compartmental model was developed using the daily stepwise approach in Microsoft Excel. An advanced model using standard differential equations in Python software version 3.6 was used to estimate based on model fit to actual data.
Forty-eight SARS-CoV-2 infections were found among the 474 quarantined individuals. Out of these, 44 (92%) were asymptomatic. for the overall duration was found to be 2.29 (95% CI: 1.84-2.78). Male gender and age ≥ 60 years were associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection (RR = 4.33, 95% CI: 2.07-9.05 and 5.32, 95% CI: 3.13-9.04, respectively). Isolation of infected individuals and stricter quarantine of remaining individuals reduced the from 2.41 initially to 1.17 subsequently.
value was found comparable to the earlier studies indicating similar transmission dynamics among quarantined individuals in India. Universal testing and prompt isolation of infected individuals reduced the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Smaller group sizes should be preferred to large groups during facility-based quarantine in evacuation situations. The role of asymptomatic individuals appears to be strong in SARS-CoV-2 transmission within closed populations.
在冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行期间，从伊朗撤离的印度国民被隔离在拉贾斯坦邦的斋沙默尔。我们希望研究在这种封闭人群中严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2（SARS-CoV-2）的传播。
使用 Microsoft Excel 中的每日逐步方法开发了一个基本的易感、暴露、感染和清除（SEIR） compartmental 模型。使用 Python 软件版本 3.6 中的标准微分方程的高级模型用于根据模型拟合实际数据来估计。
在 474 名被隔离的个体中发现了 48 例 SARS-CoV-2 感染。其中，44 例（92%）为无症状。总体持续时间的估计值为 2.29（95%CI：1.84-2.78）。男性和年龄≥60 岁与 SARS-CoV-2 感染相关（RR=4.33，95%CI：2.07-9.05 和 5.32，95%CI：3.13-9.04）。感染个体的隔离和对其余个体更严格的隔离将从最初的 2.41 降低至 1.17。
值与早期研究相似，表明在印度被隔离的个体中存在相似的传播动态。普遍检测和及时隔离感染个体可减少 SARS-CoV-2 的传播。在撤离情况下，设施内隔离时应优先选择较小的群体规模，而不是较大的群体。无症状个体在封闭人群中 SARS-CoV-2 的传播中似乎起着重要作用。
