CABI, Bakeham Lane, Egham, Surrey, UK.
CABI, Nosworthy Way, Wallingford, UK.
Pest Manag Sci. 2021 Mar;77(3):1361-1370. doi: 10.1002/ps.6151. Epub 2020 Nov 4.
The papaya mealybug, Paracoccus marginatus, is a highly polyphagous invasive pest that affects more than 200 plants, many of which are of economic importance. We modelled the potential distribution of P. marginatus using CLIMEX, a process-oriented, climate-based niche model. We combined this model with spatial data on irrigation and cropping patterns to increase the real-world applicability of the model.
The resulting model agreed with known distribution points for this pest and with broad areas where P. marginatus has been reported, but for which no GPS data were available. Our model highlights the potential expansion of P. marginatus into novel areas in Central and East Africa, as well as further expansion in Central America and Asia, as these areas are highly climatically suitable, and have large expanses of suitable crop hosts. It also highlights areas, such as the central and eastern states of the USA as well as the western provinces of China, that are suitable for seasonal invasions of P. marginatus.
Our results offer refined resolution on areas with high potential for invasion by P. marginatus. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry.
番木瓜粉蚧，又称木瓜绵粉蚧，是一种高度多食性的入侵害虫，影响 200 多种植物，其中许多具有经济重要性。我们使用基于气候的生态位模型 CLIMEX 来模拟番木瓜粉蚧的潜在分布。我们将该模型与灌溉和种植模式的空间数据相结合，以提高模型在现实世界中的适用性。
该模型与该害虫的已知分布点以及番木瓜粉蚧已经报告但没有 GPS 数据的广泛地区相吻合。我们的模型突出了番木瓜粉蚧在中非和东非新地区以及中美洲和亚洲进一步扩张的潜力，因为这些地区具有高度的气候适宜性，并且有大片适宜的作物寄主。它还突出了一些地区，如美国中东部各州和中国西部省份，这些地区适合番木瓜粉蚧季节性入侵。
我们的结果提供了对番木瓜粉蚧高入侵潜力地区的精细分辨率。 © 2020 化学工业协会。
