Department of Environment and Sustainability, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA.
Purple Martin Conservation Association, Erie, PA, USA.
J Anim Ecol. 2021 Feb;90(2):356-366. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.13369. Epub 2020 Oct 26.
Species distribution models (SDMs) estimate habitat suitability for species in geographic space. They are extensively used in conservation under the assumption that there is a positive relationship between habitat suitability and species success and stability. Given the difficulties in obtaining demographic data across a species' range, this assumption is rarely tested. Here we provide a range-wide test of this relationship for the eastern subspecies of purple martin Progne subis subis. We build a well-supported SDM for the breeding range of the purple martin, and pair it with an unparalleled demographic dataset of nest success and local and regional abundance data for the species to test the proposed link between habitat suitability and fecundity and demography. We find a positive relationship between regional abundance and habitat suitability but no relationship between local abundance or fecundity and habitat suitability. Our data suggest that local success is driven largely by biotic and stochastic factors and raise the possibility that purple martins are experiencing a time lag in their distribution. More broadly our results call for caution in how we interpret SDMs and do not support the assumption that areas of high habitat suitability are the best areas for species persistence.
物种分布模型（SDMs）估计物种在地理空间中的栖息地适宜性。它们在保护中被广泛应用，假设栖息地适宜性与物种的成功和稳定性之间存在正相关关系。鉴于在物种分布范围内获取人口统计学数据的困难，这种假设很少得到检验。在这里，我们为紫崖燕东部亚种 Progne subis subis 提供了一个广泛的关系测试。我们为紫崖燕的繁殖范围建立了一个支持良好的 SDM，并将其与一个无与伦比的物种巢成功率和局部及区域丰度数据的人口统计数据集配对，以测试栖息地适宜性与繁殖力和人口统计学之间的拟议联系。我们发现区域丰度与栖息地适宜性之间存在正相关关系，但局部丰度或繁殖力与栖息地适宜性之间不存在相关关系。我们的数据表明，当地的成功在很大程度上是由生物和随机因素驱动的，并提出了紫崖燕的分布可能存在时间滞后的可能性。更广泛地说，我们的结果呼吁在我们如何解释 SDM 时要谨慎，并且不支持高栖息地适宜性区域是物种生存的最佳区域的假设。
